[ August 8, 2020 ]
Check out the much cited and oft heralded “model” estimates of hospitalizations versus the actual hospitalization number flashed during Coumo’s daily presser midday. The gross discordance speaks for itself. And this model is much more conservative in terms of total US coronavirus deaths of ~80-84K
Also, what is the actual death rate of Coronavirus patients who did not have debilitating underlying diseases?
The media is not going to press these issues. They are going to do everything to prolong corona panic. Think about it. All Americans are being forced to stay home and watch the news. And the more dire their predictions,the more eyes.
Is that ever going to happen for them again?
Is it ever going to be this good for them again?
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Projected vs actual (black) ( drawn slightly roughly)
Time to make a new model pic.twitter.com/kiFBAEZIVt— Tom Goodwin (@tomfgoodwin) April 2, 2020
Dr. Andrew Bostom, MD, MS writes:
Let me make clear: I do not engage in covid19 denialism.It is a vicious virus/viral illness when it finds a vulnerable target (andthe same can be said of influenza viruses, BTW, esp. in the age before massdeployment of effective vaccination, & even occasionally in our era, when westill have “vaccine mismatches”)!However, here is what I also find unacceptable!: The most“rigorous/respected” U Wash Inst for Health Metrics covid19 “model” for NYCwas 4-fold exaggerated for hospitalizations yesterday, 4/1. (This modelhttps://covid19.healthdata.org/projections currently projects 93,531 covid19 deaths by Aug. 4th, & is now widely touted)….But see how far off thismodel was (~4-fold) on a very important basic metric yesterday, i.e.,hospitalizations for serious covid19 illness, yesterday in NYC!! Similarly,the U Wash Inst for Health Metrics covid19 “model” for my state of RhodeIsland was off by over 3-fold, on this same basic metric!Hat Tip https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson : The more “rigorous” U Wash InstFor Health Metrics model predicted 50K covid19 hospital bed occupancy forNYS today, 4/1 https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs?amp=1 ; Actual occupancy is 12,226,4-fold lessMore “rigorous” U Wash Inst For Health Metrics model predicted 200 hospitalbed covid19 occupancy for Rhode Island today, 4/1https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs?amp=1 ; actual occupancy is 60, more than 3-fold
This is the @IMHE_UW model for #Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? https://t.co/zdRwaS4UJr pic.twitter.com/bRroolmKgw
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 1, 2020
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
All projection data can be found here: https://t.co/rz4umy4afN.
All historical hospitalization data can be found here: https://t.co/Vw7OOOLbHC.
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 2, 2020
I can never tell what’s going to get attention. I wish this would. Let me rephrase: Oregon – a state of 4.2 million people – has shut down in order to, by ITS OWN PROJECTIONS, keep an average of two extra people a day from needing intensive care this month. https://t.co/pB0tYxGwgd
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
2/ Even more importantly, the state’s own prediction is now that it would face NO crisis even if the lockdown was lifted. By early May, all of Oregon would have ~90 people in ICU beds if all businesses reopened, as opposed to ~30 if the lockdown continued. See for yourself. pic.twitter.com/bgBSBEbeW2
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Here’s San Francisco as of tonight – 800,000 people, 434 cases, 7 deaths. Looks as though new cases peaked several days ago. https://t.co/U23HZjF3mE
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
More “rigorous” U Wash Inst For Health Metrics model predicted 200 hospital bed covid19 occupancy for Rhode Island today, 4/1 https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs; actual occupancy is 60, more than 3-fold less https://t.co/KZO2h50WaQ pic.twitter.com/lniAHz0VtR
— Andrew Bostom (@andrewbostom) April 2, 2020
Back to Oregon: to keep those two people a day out of intensive care, Oregon has put 200,000+ people out of work (the real number is higher, this is official claims only, 76K last week, more this week). Some are already broke. Does this seem rational? https://t.co/rILB05xCKC
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Meanwhile a fact accidentally crept into this panicked @nytimes article about LA hospitals: Cedars-Sinai, a huge tertiary care center, had 50 #COVID cases on 3/17 and 115 on 3/31. That’s an average increase of, yes, five a day. By the year 2100 it will have 140,000! pic.twitter.com/UNzWxXX1GG
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
So @CT_Bergstrom is one of the all-time panickers. Here he is suggesting the @IHME_UW model vastly *understated* the risks of #COVID. Hey Carl, now that the model has proven completely wrong in less than a week, care to give us an update? Asking for 10 million unemployed friends. https://t.co/N4SUOuPHYf
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
Very informative thread. Explains why NY’s Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated. They dont’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it. https://t.co/Hbdud2ppSI
— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 1, 2020
It’s no secret – the scientific adviser to the Italian health minister said it to @Telegraph more than a week ago: “The way we come deaths in our country is very generous in that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.” https://t.co/IxfPRyE3TQ
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020
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