An Accounting For Armenia

7

An Accounting For Armenia

By: Alberto M. Fernandez, MEMRI December 2020;

Turkey was one of the losers of the First World War, surrendering most of its Middle East empire, but it did quite well in a series of post-war conflicts from 1919 to 1923. With the victorious Western allies either exhausted or distracted, the so-called Turkish War of Independence saw Turkish nationalists under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk defeat the Armenians in the East, the French in the South, and the Greeks in the West.

In recognition of the suffering of the Armenians during the genocide inflicted on them in the First World War, the Western powers decided that there should be an Armenian state. It was actually proposed that the new Armenia be under American mandate, and the new state’s borders were drawn by U.S. President Woodrow Wilson.  The same King-Crane Commission that recommended an independent Arab Kingdom in Syria proposed a larger Armenian state stretching from current-day Armenia to the Black Sea. In the end, an isolationist U.S. Senate rejected accepting a mandate over Armenia. The victors of American diffidence were both Turkey and Russia.  The great losers were the Armenians, who not only lost territory which encompassed part of historic Armenia but were subject to decades of oppressive Soviet Russian rule.

Story continues below advertisement

A century later the parallels are eerie. A short bloody war in late 2020 with Azerbaijan, heavily supported by an irredentist Turkey, leads to the defeat of the Armenians of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the loss of more territory. A draconian ceasefire agreement, brokered by Russia, is grudgingly signed by the Armenians. As in 1920, the Armenians sign because they know that if they don’t, they might lose even more of what little remains in their hands.

Two thousand Russian soldiers are to secure the uneasy peace for a minimum of five years, a period which can be extended unless either Armenia or Azerbaijan gives six months’ notice that it is to be terminated. While the results of the war seem to confirm it as another of those Russian “frozen conflicts,” conceivably, in about four and a half years, one of the parties could give notice that the armistice is ended and open conflict could again resume. Certainly the triumphalist rhetoric from Baku indicates a lust for even more conquest.

Is there anything for the United States of America to do in such a situation? The conventional answer is, not much.  The U.S. has been a member of the often-hapless Minsk Group charged with finding a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue since 1992, but America will never match the attention and intensity that other players – Russia, Turkey, and, of course, Azerbaijan and Armenia – bring to the table.

Ironically, the roots of the 2020 Russian-imposed ceasefire agreement are American. This is a version of the old “Goble Plan,” named for former U.S. diplomat Paul Goble, who suggested mutual recognition of an Azerbaijan land bridge across southern Armenia to the Azeri enclave of Nakhichevan coupled with a corridor at Lachin connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with the Republic of Armenia. The concept was actually floated as part of a peace deal by Azerbaijan’s then-president, the veteran KGB Gen. Heydar Aliyev (father of Azerbaijan’s current dictator) more than 20 years ago, but proved to be too cynical or forward leaning for his own regime.

MDB2441.jpg

 

\As Turkish president Erdoğan’s lapdog media made abundantly clear, one of the losers in this sharp brutal conflict was the “pro-Armenian West.” Turkish media played up both Turkey and Russia, along with Azerbaijan, as the winners: “All pro-Armenian states can be counted among the losers of the war as well. Among them, the Western countries come first… Especially, the United States and France, the most pro-Armenian countries in the West.”[9]

In a more just world, the remaining Nagorno-Karabakh territory in local Armenian hands, along with the Lachin corridor, would become an integral part of the Republic of Armenia, borders would be formalized, and both Azerbaijan and Armenia would prioritize the essential job of building up their own states that are beset by a myriad of social and economic ills. But what may be just is often inconceivable. While dysfunctional dictatorship Azerbaijan is flush with oil wealth, Armenia is a country whose population census is treated as a state secret because its dire economic situation continues to lead to the flight of those able and talented enough to emigrate.

U.S. policy has been, even before President Trump, leaning towards Azerbaijan, driven by the twin magnets of Baku’s oil wealth and the tempting concept of “encircling” Russia with a string of pro-Western anti-Russian states.  During the U.S. presidential campaign, Democratic candidate Joe Biden issued a position paper outlining a greater emphasis on helping Armenians in both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.[10]

Campaign promises should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt. The U.S. doesn’t have the attention span to work to detach Armenia fully from the Russian sphere of influence (Russia also seeks to expand its influence in both Turkey and Azerbaijan) even if it tried. With so many hotspots and crises elsewhere, and with the fait accompli caused by the latest war, the Southern Caucasus is just not going to be an American priority.

But there is some room for an American policy towards Armenia that has clear and humble goals seeking to strengthen the capacity of this ancient Christian people to remain rooted and flourish in their homelands. That should be the focus. U.S. policy towards an aggressive Turkey obsessed with lebensraum is also ripe for an overdue course correction.[11] Making it clear to Erdoğan that America has interests in the survival and flourishing of the Armenians in the Caucasus (and in the territorial integrity of Greece and Cyprus) would be a very good early message to send.

As for victorious Azerbaijan, a smart American policy would seek renewed positive engagement, while at the same time quietly warning against renewed military hubris and especially against incitement and an orchestrated campaign of erasing Armenians from history and from the region.[12]

 

Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.    

 

[1] Woodrowwilson.org/blog/2019/12/19/armenia, December 19, 2019.

[2] Dcollections.oberlin.edu/digital/collection/kingcrane/id/2902/rec/1, August 1919.

[3] Nytimes.com/1920/06/02/archives/senate-rejects-mandate-52-to-23-thirteen-democrats-vote-with.html, June 2, 1920.

[4] Caucasuswatch.de/news/3306.html, December 3, 2020.

[5] Armenianweekly.com/2020/11/23/putin-armenia-not-recognizing-artsakh-was-a-significant-factor, November 23, 2020.

[6] Warsawinstitute.org/post-soviet-frozen-conflicts-challenge-european-security, March 14, 2019.

[7] Dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/azerbaijans-aliyev-vows-to-revive-liberated-nagorno-karabakh, November 26, 2020.

[8] Haberturk.com/son-dakika-turk-dunyasi-icin-onemli-gelisme-nahcivan-dan-azerbaycan-a-koridor-haberler-2865989, November 11, 2020.

[9] Dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/pro-armenian-west-is-net-loser-of-2nd-karabakh-war, November 18, 2020.

[10] Armradio.am/2020/10/17/joe-biden-pledges-to-recognize-armenian-genocide-push-for-lasting-peace-in-the-region, October 17, 2020.

[11] Nordicmonitor.com/2020/02/erdogans-secret-keeper-says-lausanne-treaty-invalid-turkey-free-to-grab-resources, February 24, 2020.

[12] Evnreport.com/spotlight-karabakh/christianity-in-karabakh-azerbaijani-efforts-at-rewriting-history-are-not-new, November 22, 2020.

 

The Truth Must be Told

Your contribution supports independent journalism

Please take a moment to consider this. Now, more than ever, people are reading Geller Report for news they won't get anywhere else. But advertising revenues have all but disappeared. Google Adsense is the online advertising monopoly and they have banned us. Social media giants like Facebook and Twitter have blocked and shadow-banned our accounts. But we won't put up a paywall. Because never has the free world needed independent journalism more.

Everyone who reads our reporting knows the Geller Report covers the news the media won't. We cannot do our ground-breaking report without your support. We must continue to report on the global jihad and the left's war on freedom. Our readers’ contributions make that possible.

Geller Report's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our work is critical in the fight for freedom and because it is your fight, too.

Please contribute here.

or

Make a monthly commitment to support The Geller Report – choose the option that suits you best.

Quick note: We cannot do this without your support. Fact. Our work is made possible by you and only you. We receive no grants, government handouts, or major funding. Tech giants are shutting us down. You know this. Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Adsense, Pinterest permanently banned us. Facebook, Google search et al have shadow-banned, suspended and deleted us from your news feeds. They are disappearing us. But we are here.

Subscribe to Geller Report newsletter here— it’s free and it’s essential NOW when informed decision making and opinion is essential to America's survival. Share our posts on your social channels and with your email contacts. Fight the great fight.

Follow Pamela Geller on Gettr. I am there. click here.

Follow Pamela Geller on
Trump's social media platform, Truth Social. It's open and free.

Remember, YOU make the work possible. If you can, please contribute to Geller Report.

Join The Conversation. Leave a Comment.

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spammy or unhelpful, click the - symbol under the comment to let us know. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.

If you would like to join the conversation, but don't have an account, you can sign up for one right here.

If you are having problems leaving a comment, it's likely because you are using an ad blocker, something that break ads, of course, but also breaks the comments section of our site. If you are using an ad blocker, and would like to share your thoughts, please disable your ad blocker. We look forward to seeing your comments below.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
7 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

What was Erdoğan’s reaction to this?

comment image

MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

Heartfelt pride and disappointment that the Azerbaijani muslums didn’t finish the job!

Rob Porter
Rob Porter
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

And what it the West doing about this circumstance? Nothing of course. In the msm we in Canada hear and read nothing about 110 Christians recently murdered by Muslims over one weekend in Nigeria. We’ve heard next to nothing about the other 75,000 murdered over the last 10 or 20 years. The West is now puke weak and morals destitute.

Nelly
Nelly
3 years ago

I also do not think that America can resolve this conflict. But some of the participants would be more restrained now in relation to the Armenians. Dictators and sadists thrive under weak cops

MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
3 years ago

Who cares? Hitler didn’t. By the principles of “international law” the entire world belongs to muslums — just ask the all muslum OIC and their puppet organisation the UN!

ed
ed
3 years ago

“U.S. policy has been, even before President Trump, leaning towards Azerbaijan, driven by the twin magnets of Baku’s oil wealth and the tempting concept of “encircling” Russia with a string of pro-Western anti-Russian states. ”

“Baku’s oil wealth”……Is Hunter Biden on their Board of Director’s yet ????

ed
ed
3 years ago

“U.S. policy has been, even before President Trump, leaning towards Azerbaijan, driven by the twin magnets of Baku’s oil wealth and the tempting concept of “encircling” Russia with a string of pro-Western anti-Russian states. ”

“Baku’s oil wealth”……Is Hunter Biden on their Board of Director’s yet ????

Sponsored
Geller Report
Thanks for sharing!