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Early voting shows Trump might win Nevada

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The data in Nevada is looking pretty good for President Trump. Trump has an excellent chance of reaching 260 electoral votes. If Trump then flips Nevada and New Hampshire he will be re-elected on Tuesday. Get out and vote for the POTUS. And bring everyone you know with you.

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VICTOR JOECKS: Early voting shows Trump still has a chance to win Nevada

By Review Journal, October 31, 2020

If you need evidence that Nevada is in play, look no further than President Donald Trump’s travel schedule.

On Wednesday, the president held a massive rally on the Arizona side of the Nevada/Arizona border. That allowed him to escape the restrictive crowd size limits King Steve Sisolak has imposed while still talking to thousands of Nevadans. And Vice President Mike Pence visited Reno on Thursday.

In the final days of a campaign, a candidate’s time is extremely limited. Every speech Trump gives in Nevada is one he can’t give in Pennsylvania or North Carolina. It’s a sure sign that members of the Trump campaign believe they can win Nevada.

Early voting data shows they have a chance. Nevadans have three ways to vote this year: mail ballots, early voting and in person on Nov 3. Results aren’t released until the evening of Election Day, but information voting demographics is available. This allows you to know how many Democrats, Republicans and independents have cast ballots. Unless one candidate is doing terribly with his own party, this provides a rough idea of how the election is going.

As of Thursday afternoon, 43,600 more Democrats than Republicans had voted. The breakdown by party affiliation was 40.6 percent Democrat, 35.8 percent Republican and 23.6 percent independents and third parties. All data is from the secretary of state’s website.

In many ways, this is expected. As of September, Democrats had around 90,000 more registered voters than Republicans. Usually, Democrats build up a big lead in early voting and then try to survive on Election Day.

This year, there were even more reasons to anticipate an early Democrat surge. National Democrats urged voters to use mail ballots and return them early. That happened here. Democrats have a 113,800 lead in ballots returned by mail voting. Republicans have a 70,200 lead among those voting at the polls.

There are two possible explanations for Democrats’ lead. One possibility is that there are simply more Democrats in Nevada. These numbers reflect that, and Joe Biden is well on his way to victory in Nevada.

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