President Trump powers into the lead in crucial Pennsylvania says pollster who called state in 2016


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Trump powers into the lead in crucial Pennsylvania says pollster who called state in 2016

By Rowan Scarborough – The Washington Times – Updated: 5:04 p.m. on Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Trafalgar Group poll has President Trump taking a slight lead in Pennsylvania, showing the small Georgia research firm is once again going against the corporate polling grain which has Joseph R. Biden with a healthy lead.

Trafalgar Group also has Mr. Trump ahead in Michigan and other swing states.

Chief strategist Robert Cahaly says his small team of analysts know how to find Trump-shy voters, a skill displayed in 2016 when it — and Mr. Trump — shocked the media establishment.

We knew Monday night that Trump was going to win,” Mr. Cahaly told The Washington Times afterward.

“It’s the most shocking political development of my lifetime,” said national polling maestro Nate Silver, who runs the website FiveThirtyEight.com.

As in 2016, Trafalgar is offering Trump backers a ray of hope against a sea of “blue” poll numbers on the much-watched Real Clear Politics web pages.

In seven swing states, Trafalgar is inserting “red” numbers in six of them. Trump is:

  • Up by 4 points in Ohio. Other polls have it closer.
  • Up by 2 in Florida while the Real Clear Politics Average has Mr. Biden ahead.
  • Up 2 in North Carolina against a RCP average of plus 4.5 percent Mr. Biden.
  • Up 4 in Arizona against RCP average of Mr. Biden up 2.
  • Up 1 in Michigan while the RCP average is a whopping plus 9 Biden.
  • Up 0.8 percent on Oct. 25 in Pennsylvania.
  • Down 1.3 in Wisconsin, but still closer than “blue” numbers a week before Nov. 3.

Trafalgar discovered through comparison polling that some distrustful Trump supporters would not disclose their choice. Perhaps it has something to do with how they are negatively portrayed in the national media.

Trafalgar also created a large sample size of 1,000 to find Trump voters who had not gone to the polls in a while. And it also added a “neighbor” question to let the respondent know he was not alone.

The firm relies on six different methods: liver callers; automated voice; texts; emails and two proprietary cyber methods.

Mr. Cahaly says the questioning lasts just one or two minutes to assuage impatient people who don’t like long surveys.

In 2016, Trafalgar also correctly predicted Trump wins in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. And pegged his electoral college number at a spot-on at 306.

In 2018, scores of polls had Democrat Andrew Gillum defeating Republican Ron DeSantis by 1 to 7 points. Only Trafalgar a day before the Nov. 6 election said Mr. DeSantis would win.

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