Add Florida to list of swing states where early voting data favors a Trump victory

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Photo: Today’s rally in Tampa. Florida.

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Add Florida to list of swing states where early voting data favors a Trump victory

by Michael Lee The Washington Exaomer, | October 29, 2020:

Republicans have closed Democrats’ early voting lead in Florida by about 300,000 votes since early, in-person voting began and only trail in the state by 3 points five days before Election Day.

“Anyone Democrat feeling really confident right now should look at Florida’s early voting numbers. Republicans are having another huge day across the state,” NBC’s Joe Scarborough noted Tuesday.

Democrats carried an early voting lead in Florida into Election Day in 2016 as well only to have that margin erased by the GOP, resulting in Trump winning the state.

This year, the Democratic lead going into Election Day might have to be larger than usual. An overwhelming majority of Democrats have indicated they plan to or already have voted by mail or done early voting, while those voting for Trump have indicated they plan to vote on Election Day. As the Democrats lead continues to narrow ahead of Nov. 3, a wave of Republican voters could help push Trump over the top in the state.

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“Democrats’ early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day, observed the Hill’s John Pudner. “Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.”

“Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day,” Pudner wrote. “If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.”

Democrats only have a slim 41%-38% early and mail-in voting lead in Florida as of Thursday.

The early voting results in the battleground state of Florida look similar to the numbers out of Michigan and Wisconsin, which both show Republicans leading the early vote in the states despite polls showing Trump lagging. Republicans have an even larger lead in Ohio, a swing state Trump leads in most polls. Florida’s numbers could be more accurate, as the state makes voter registration data publicly available, unlike Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Trump won all four states in 2016.

One state where Democrats are hitting their expected target is Pennsylvania, which shows Democrats leading 68%-22%. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, and the state is currently rated as the most likely to decide the election.

Polls currently show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a narrow lead in Florida, while FiveThirtyEight only gives Trump a 35% chance of winning the state as of Thursday.

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DemocracyRules
DemocracyRules
3 years ago

Newt Gingrich sees a clear Trump win, with a wide margin in electoral votes.
Gingrich: Map Of Trump With 326 Electoral Votes Looks Right, “Left Is Going To Be Terribly Shocked”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/28/gingrich_map_of_trump_with_326_electoral_votes_looks_right_left_is_going_to_be_terribly_shocked.html

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  DemocracyRules

It’s the fraud that concerns me. Trump would have a landslide win without the fraud. I can only hope that there is such a surge for Trump, DEMS can’t possibly over come the Trump number if people come out enmasse to vote for Trump. Early voting also tells DEMS what number they have to come up with through fraud to win. So there is a down side to that.
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Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

How many thousands of votes have already been intentionally lost in the mail? It seems like an important thing to know. Dangit, I just don’t want to be the one to have to count this number. It seems not only tedious but also infuriating. I hope someone is keeping score is all.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

I also hope that person isn’t me.

DemocracyRules
DemocracyRules
3 years ago
Reply to  Philip

Trump suggests that mail-in voters go to the polls in person to check if there is a record of them having voted. Many jurisdictions enable that.

Philip
Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  DemocracyRules

I know that you care. I also know President Trump is going to win. In the event of shenanigans, Ima encourage you to tally the many reported cases of discarded votes. Let it begin with you so I don’t need to! (Look, I’m just tired, ok? I will if I need to but so must you.) We will overcome.

AlgorithmicAnalyst
AlgorithmicAnalyst
3 years ago

The Democrats have a horrendous head start with their one party cheating state governments where the voters have no real say. Something needs to be done about that.

Bill
Bill
3 years ago

That’s an understatement.

patd
patd
3 years ago

That will change as soon as the moronic libturd dumocrap criminals start stuffing the balots!

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  patd

That is what concerns me….

Bill
Bill
3 years ago

Then expect massive cheating in Fl.

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

Not sure where this is but the “peaceful protests” are getting larger….
Could be in Florida..it was another love fest. Minnesota, Muslim, DEM, Keith Ellison A.G. is trying to limit Trump “peaceful protests” to 250 people….
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felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

Here’s Biden in Florida with all smiles, disgraced druggie and bisexual Andrew Gillum at his side and DEM Senator Bill Nelson. Attendance was no where near what Trump draws. It took place at the University of South Florida on 10/22/20 with a top estimate of 1500 people in the gym. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/22/joe-biden-lays-it-on-the-line-in-tampa-you-will-never-vote-in-an-election-thats-more-important/
.
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Just doesn’t compare to Trump –
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Philip
Philip
3 years ago

Florida is no swing state. Florida is President Trump’s HOME STATE!

John Acord
John Acord
3 years ago

Trump has to declare martial law immediately after the November 3 election;otherwise, we will be facing an armed revolt by the crazy wannabe Bolsheviks of our sizable Left.

Patti York
Patti York
3 years ago
Reply to  John Acord

I pray that he is already prepared to crush these thugs right where they stand.

knightsstrength
knightsstrength
3 years ago
Reply to  John Acord

I reckon he should have done that before the elections mid October.

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knightsstrength
knightsstrength
3 years ago
Reply to  John Acord

Yes I think he should have way back then, and as January 6th roiled on he should have done then after Pence’s betrayal as many other traitors showed they were sleaze bags

Laddyboy
Laddyboy
3 years ago

What is wrong with people?? Do / Are Americans FOOLED by the constant dribble by the DemoKKKrats’ insistent blabbering that the CRIMINAL 0bid’n will win the race to put COMMUNIST KamelToe in as President????

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