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Biden is on track to lose the Electoral College

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My colleague Andrew nailed it when he said, “I’m convinced that the real purpose of the electoral college is to prevent interested parties from thinking they can commit massive fraud in their strongholds by simply manufacturing enough fraudulent votes. There’s only so much fraud that can pass through each county. We saw the EC work as designed to stop the voter fraud in 2016. In fact, I believe Hillary ‘winning the popular vote’ proved they engaged in massive vote fraud bc the EC stopped her from winning.”

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Biden is on track to lose the Electoral College

A month or so ago, the notion that President Trump would win reelection was dismissed as delusional. No longer.

By: Boston Globe (!), September 1, 2020:

A month or so ago, the notion that President Trump would win reelection was dismissed as delusional.

Reality resided in the data. Trump won seniors by 9 percentage points in the 2016 election; he trailed by from 5 to 9 percentage points in the July/early August 2020 survey research. Support for Trump among suburban women had collapsed. His approval and “reelect” numbers remained and still remain stubbornly low (low 40s). Two-thirds of the electorate think the country is on “the wrong track.” No way he wins, given all that.

And that’s right. There is no way Trump “wins.” He will lose the national popular vote by somewhere between 5 million and 7 million votes. His reelection campaign hasn’t just given up on trying to win the popular vote; they never thought it was possible in the first place.

You can feel the change in the press coverage. The tone of the commentary and analysis has gone from up-tempo to downbeat. “Biden’s doing well” has been replaced by “Biden’s in trouble.”

Last Thursday put a punctuation mark on the shift. A Change Research poll was posted at CNBC.com. The top-line national number had Biden comfortably ahead. But in the six “battleground states,” Biden’s lead, statistically speaking, had evaporated.

What all the pros know is that the president “under-polls.” Trump is usually 2 percent stronger than he “performs” in any given published poll. “People don’t want to admit they’re voting for Trump,” said one pollster. Bloomberg News recently ran a story saying the same thing.

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