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Trump Surges in Rasmussen Poll, Nearly Wipes Out 10 Point Deficit in One Week to Trail Biden By Just 3
J ul 15th, 2020:President Donald Trump experienced a 7-point swing in support from likely voters over the last week, according to the latest Rasmussen tracking poll released Wednesday.
Trump now trails former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for president by 3 percentage points among likely U.S. voters, according to the survey. Biden leads Trump 47-44 percent, marking a significant decline from his 10-point lead a week ago, when voters said they favored Biden 50-40 percent.
The shift was driven by independent voters. Voters who said they were unaffiliated with either major party gave Biden a six-point lead, 44-38 percent, down from 12 points a week ago. Biden and Trump attracted a similar level of support from voters in their own parties, with 79 percent of Republicans saying they supported Trump and 76 percent of Democrats saying the same of Biden.
Rasmussen samples a greater number of Republicans than most of its competitors, leading to results more favorable to the GOP and more favorable reviews of Rasmussen from the president. Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 — correctly predicting Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by two percentage points — but fell short in the 2018 midterms, when it predicted voters preferred Republicans by 1 percentage point. Democrats won the House by a cumulative 8.6 percent that year.
Despite a surge in coronavirus infections around the country, the stock market has been consistently improved over the last several weeks, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting multiple record highs. Biden has been relatively absent from the campaign trial, but has just over a month to select a presidential running mate before the Democratic National Convention kicks off on Aug. 17.
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