Chutzpah: Russians Warn Israel Against “Annexation” In Judea and Samaria (Part 2)

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On May 21, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Israel that its planned annexation of parts of the West Bank could lead to an escalation of violence in the region. It’s possible, of course, but history suggests that it is even more possible that such annexation would in the long term improve the chances for peace. For such annexation of the Jordan Valley, control of which Israelis deem essential to their survival, and of settlements in Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”) where half a million Israelis now live, would signal to the Palestinians that they can have their state, consisting of 70% of the West Bank, all of Gaza, and two parcels of land in the Negev, on the Israeli border with Sinai, along with a colossal aid package of $50 billion, as proposed in the Deal of the Century, but that they will not be getting more than that. Many Israelis now realize that peace with the Arabs can only be kept through deterrence, not through treaties that can always be broken by those who take as their model of treaty-making the agreement – the Treaty of al-Hudaibiyyah – that Muhammad made with the Meccans in 628 A.D.. That agreement was to have lasted for ten years; Muhammad broke it, as soon as he felt his side was stronger, after eighteen months.

Here is Russia, the largest nation on earth, trying to dictate to Israel, one of the smallest, that it must return to the armistice lines of 1949, lines which Israel at the time offered to make permanent borders, but the Arab states refused. The Russians know that in the pre-1967 lines Israel was only nine miles wide at its waist, from Qalqilya to the sea, and easily cut in two by an invading force from the east. No wonder Abba Eban called the 1949 armistice lines the “lines of Auschwitz.” This attempted diktat to Israel by a country that is 823 times its size is both unseemly and cruel.

“The ministry [of foreign affairs] added it “reiterates Russia’s principal position of supporting a comprehensive and sustainable resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a two-state solution within the given international legal conditions.”

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There is no final “resolution” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is a classic Jihad, undertaken by Muslim Arabs against Infidels, in this case the much-despised Jews, who have taken possession of land that was once, and therefore must always be, Muslim. Instead of a “solution” to this Jihad which has no end, there is another, better way to think of the conflict: it is a situation to be managed. And the way to manage it is the same way that the peace was kept during the Cold War, through deterrence. As long as Israel remains obviously, and overwhelmingly, stronger than those who oppose it, peace will be maintained.

A “two-state solution” has been proposed, and set out in remarkable detail, in the Deal of the Century. The Palestinians will be given a state of their own, consisting of 70% of the West Bank, while 100% of that territory, according to the Palestine Mandate, was to become part of the Jewish National Home. Not only that, but the Palestinians were also promised the gigantic sum of $50 billion dollars in aid. Those “international legal conditions” to which Foreign Minister Lavrov refers must include what he wants us to forget, that is, both the Mandate for Palestine, and U.N. Resolution 242. The first gives Israel sovereignty over the entire “West Bank”; the second allows Israel to extend its sovereignty over whatever territories it needs in order to have “secure [i.e. defensible] and recognized boundaries.” It will not be the bloc of Arab and Muslim states that have turned the U.N. into a kangaroo court, with Israel perennially in the dock, that will decide what territories, won in 1967, the Jewish state can keep for its security. Nor will it be the craven nations of the E.U., fearful of offending the Muslims in their midst and willing, with a handful of exceptions, to hang Israel out to dry. Nor will Russia be able to dictate to Israel what territories it needs to survive. Israel has earned the right, many times over, to decide for itself the territory it requires for its own survival.

Amid rising tensions between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA), Russia called upon “all sides to refrain from any steps that may provoke a new dangerous escalation in the region, hindering the creation of conditions allowing for the re-opening of direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Mahmoud Abbas has made it clear that he is uninterested in further negotiations with Israel. He has just ripped up not just the Oslo Accords, but all previous agreements with Israel, including those creating the security coordination.between the P.A. and Israel. It is his display of hysterical animus that constitutes a “new dangerous escalation in the region.” But Foreign Minister Lavrov has in mind something else: the agreement reached by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz on annexation of the Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements. That, and not the refusal of Mahmoud Abbas even to begin discussing the provisions of the Deal of the Century, is what alarms him.

Russia’s attempt to violate the letter and spirit of U.N. Resolution 242 is disgraceful. As previously noted, Russia is 823 times the size of Israel. How can Russia’s rulers not understand that, in trying to force the Jewish state back within the 1949 armistice lines, making it nine miles wide at its wasp-waist, it is demanding that Israel take risks far beyond what is asked of any other country, and that Russia would never demand of itself?

Russia now deplores tiny Israel’s tiny annexations of territory, to which it not only has a right under the Palestine Mandate, but also has a right to retain if it deems that territory essential for its defense, according to U.N. Resolution 242. Russia is a country which has held onto – “annexed” – countless territories after many different wars. After defeating Finland in the Winter War in 1940, the Soviet Union incorporated almost 15% of Finnish territory. It didn’t need it, in the way that Israel needs the Jordan Valley, but it wanted it. That was reason enough. After World War II, in the Far East the Soviets took Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands from Japan. They wanted them. Reason enough. In Europe, the Soviet Union annexed parts of eastern Poland (even beyond what it had already helped itself to after the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939) , and also annexed Carpathian Ruthenia, taken from Czechoslovakia, with which it had not even been at war. It just had to have it. Reason enough. The Soviets took from Germany the city of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg, the city of Kant, and of the Seven Bridges Problem), on the Baltic Sea, an exclave separated from the Soviet Union – and then from Russia — by both Poland and Lithuania. They didn’t need it. They wanted it. Again, reason enough.

In 2014, the first year of the Russo-Ukraine War that is still sputtering on, Russia seized and annexed the Crimea, which had formerly belonged to Ukraine. They wanted it. Reason enough.

Yet here is vast Russia instructing minuscule Israel that it must give up every bit of territory it won in a war of self-defense, and allow itself to be squeezed back – by the “international community” — within the armistice lines that only marked where the Jewish and Arab forces stood when the shooting stopped in 1949.

Congratulations, Foreign Minister Lavrov, on Russia winning the Chutzpah Challenge Cup, You and Vladimir Putin must be very proud.

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R
R
3 years ago

Not only the Russians but the Chinese. Thr Chinese had a moslem problem. The Chinese suffered a few car rammings and stabbings by moslems. No mamby pamby crap was taken in response. The Chinese moslems had a choice they are in reeducation camps or die. Problem solved.

MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
3 years ago
Reply to  R

The only reason I have for admiring the PRC.

Dan Knight
Dan Knight
3 years ago

Cool … a brilliant summation of Israel’s authority to annex territory and the USSR’s historical hypocrisy.

Israel has the authority to do what it needs to do. But it has not been able to do so for lack of political will to support the exercise of her authority. Trump has given his support, and Israel needs to take as much advantage of it as possible.

As for Russia: It’s hypocrisy is historical. One could say, hysterical or histrionic.

Stalin lived in a world where the few ‘superpowers’ that could resist him were weak. They were – and still are – dominated either by his Comintern … or by his fellow travelers h311 bent on destroying their own nations. Putin has no such luxury. Western powers are weak today, but they are puppets of Islam and/or China, and they do not fear Putin. What little influence Putin has comes from the shared desire of Western leaders to BLEEP the West for their personal wealth and sadistic love of evil.

Israel can act now without considering Russia. Not that Russia will not retaliate economically and diplomatically and through proxies, but it makes no difference. Russia will retaliate against Israel no matter what Israel does.

And that’s not because it’s good for Russia, but because Putin has to virtue signal (or anti-virtue signal) his support for his Muslim allies.

It’s all about the oil and gas business. It’s so essential to the commie-devastated Russian state, that Putin must kiss Muslim butt to make sure his oil and gas agreements remain in place. This includes the forbearance of the OPEC world. It also includes maintaining market share in the post-Covid recovery.

Look – if any OPEC producer got a bee in its bonnet because Russia was NOT signaling anti-Semitism, that producer could try to cut an agreement to deliver a greater share of petroleum products than Russia. And this coin has two sides – plus an edge determined by whose bribing whom. It’s not just the petroleum produced and delivered.

It may come as a surprise, but outside the BLEEP the West, West, and the BLEEP America first crowd, these OPEC idiots do know that it still takes those *obsolete* productive people with their *obsolete* math, science, and technology to produce and deliver this stuff. America has been BLEEPed to the point of near irrelevance in this despite having the most advanced tech … because China has replaced us as a viable alternative, and the Brits, French, Norwegians, and Germans can also play if they’re not too busy covering for Muslim rape gangs.

Bottom line: Russia needs to export its petroleum products and its petroleum production services, and its at a competitive disadvantage because its brilliant engineers and productive oil-field workers are even more BLEEPed than us Americans. (I know. I’ve worked with these guys.)

This means Putin must suck up to the Muslim world. It gives him a very slight edge over his Chinese and European competitors, and he needs that edge – especially now when every productive person on the planet is starving for work after being economically devastated by the Chicom-virus Plandemic.

… as the cliche goes … it’s nothing personal (this time) … it’s just business.

MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
MuhamMUDTheFakeProphet
3 years ago
Reply to  Dan Knight

Why doesn’t Russia just undercut OPEC and drive THEM out of business? A loss leader strategy. Let the muslum petrocracies eat sh!t for a while.

Dan Knight
Dan Knight
3 years ago

Excellent question … and since they have the resources in the ground to do it … one would think it’s just a mystery.

Personally – and this is just my opinion – not an analysis – but consider that there are two methods to play the market without diplomacy or military action. (A well placed terrorist event can work wonders for one’s oil prices …)

But generally, a producer can cut his prices, or he can increase his volume. The other methods of course are in play, but – Just MHO – Bush precluded most of those options by invading Iraq. The Saudis wanted the Iraq war to ensure their political – and economic – stability. And Bush obliged because he’s an idiot. Obama/Clinton effectively continued that policy by going along with/fomenting the Arab Spring (Mostly Peaceful Protests).

Btw – I’m not saying that was the primary purpose or objectives of our interference in the Middle East – it was just a side effect that forced Russia to protect petroleum assets of its allies and prevented them from sabotaging other assets due to our presence.

Russia has a phenomenal capacity. The engineers I worked with spoke of vast fields of natural gas, coal, and crude as yet untapped. So they could produce far, far more than they do.

But here’s the thing: The domestic price is tied to the ruble; so they can sell it for nothing internally. The export price is tied to the dollar; so their price is directly dependent on ‘hard’ currency exchanges in dollars on the international market.

Translation: Sell at $10/barrel – inside Russia no problem – but outside Russia, and suddenly you have no hard currency coming in to balance the trade.

In theory, Russia produces in rubles – currently 0.014 to the dollar. So $10 USD for a barrel of crude is about $700 in rubles. But if you have to expend say – a billion USD – in the international markets – and crude oil is you only asset … it takes 100MM barrels to pay for that at $10/barrel.

Russia produces about 10.9MM barrels a day.

Today’s WTI is 39.81 USD. So Russia’s turning over about $434 MM / day.

If they dropped to $10, they would lose $325MM / day. That’s what 9.75 billion per month?

So we would say, sure – wipe out OPEC – heck, Congress burns $10 billion before lunch just paying commie NGOs to call ’em racists.

But if you flip it over from the Russian viewpoint – cutting the price from 39.8 to 10 would cost Russians $23 billion dollars a day or $692 billion in a month. Oh, wait, that’s like a whole stimulus package.

A ridiculously weak currency like the ruble makes dollars seem like pure gold. This is why there’s no way I can compete with my Chinese counterpart – and why the Chicom engineers making $25k laughed at us – as they showed off their fancy cars, homes, clothes, servants, etc.

Putin’s crude oil stream is literally like a Midas gold machine for him. This is also why they have so much trouble getting out of the dollar.

Exchanging crude in Yuan, e.g., changes the numbers from 71 rubles to a dollar to 10 rubles to a Yuan. That’s 10:1 instead of 71:1. So just changing the exchange currency cuts Putin’s money flow by 7 to one – no pun intended.

In a single month, converting the crude in Yuan would reduce Russia’s hard currency exchange from $692 billion local equivalent to $97.5 billion local equivalent. And remember – that’s income – not debt or money printing. And it’s real jobs for the few – and very grateful – oil field workers in Russia.

I haven’t looked at Russia’s international debts or deficits or their schedule of bond payments … but I would bet they’re one really sick mess … since their economy is still backward due to the psychological, social, and cultural impact of communism.

So – just MHO – but I think that’s why Putin does not just lower prices.

Increasing production would have a different effect. It would lower prices, damage competitors, but the increase of volume would compensate for loss of income. Putin has – I think – used this once or twice if you look at the 25yr production chart – there’s a couple of blips.

But it’s not that simple at the 10.9 MM level where they’re at. Although they have a Marvel Comics Superhero level of assets in the ground, their ability to increase production enough to hurt the competition and take market share is low. It’s long, involved, technical, and complex.

They can’t hire us to do it. – Not that we wouldn’t, but very few Americans right now are going to risk it. They could hire Brits, Norwegians, French, Germans, Chinese, and OPEC professionals to help – but none of these nations have anywhere near the capacity to do the job at scale. Oh, any can develop a field – but to put out the workers needed to up production to crush OPEC? They’d need almost everyone with the proper skills on the planet to do that … and it would be a dead giveaway.

Meanwhile, Russia is allied to many OPEC nations in other ways. Taking out OPEC would affect their exports across the board along with long-standing diplomatic and military relations that Putin is locked into – just as we are locked into our own strange-bedfellows thanks to the Cold War. Putin could – in theory – make new relationships – even with the same nations. But that involves risk to him and his regime, I’m sure he’s unwilling to take – especially since he cannot rely on either China or America or the EU to have his back.

***Just a few thoughts

… you and yours have a wonderful week, MMFP!

TD
TD
3 years ago

In the end, the only person we can count on to protect our western values; and America’s “interests and alliances” is DONALD J. TRUMP

Charles Kitchens
Charles Kitchens
3 years ago

Maybe Israel should warn Russia about annexation in the Ukraine.

Richard Harris
Richard Harris
3 years ago

RuSSia has a lot of nerve lecturing Israel about annexation when RuSSia in recent years ILLEGALLY annexed chunks of Ukraine and Georgia. RuSSia is the size of a MONSTER because of it’s long history of having a MONSTER size appetite for other nations’ territories. SMH

dad1927
dad1927
3 years ago

Go ahead. Russians don’t mean it….. comment image

dad1927
dad1927
3 years ago
Reply to  dad1927

Russia is very weak now….

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