[ April 23, 2024 ]
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1249835980170891272
Expected live at 5 p.m. ET: President Trump is expected to join the Coronavirus Task Force for the daily White House press briefing.
Tune if for the real news concerning Corona updates. And watch the media jackals bark and howl especially when he lays out his plan to re-open the country.
https://youtu.be/xk1EXwA4HAg
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5 Comments
4 years ago
Here are 2 snapshots that provide useful context for Trump today: USA stats versus Europe stats
These two regions are comparable in population, but Covid-19 hit Europe sooner than the USA. Thus, Europe is farther down the road, and you can see on link #1 that they have passed the hump, as shown on the purple line on the graph on the right. On link #2, the US is just peaking, as shown on the purple line on the graph on the right. This situation seems to show why Trump is considering easing the lock-downs, because the USA is peeking right now, and will probably drop off soon. The skyrocketing increases seem to be ending.
#1. https://covid19info.live/europe/
#2. https://covid19info.live/us/
4 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
WHY are the number of new cases tapering off? I don’t know. These drop-off data roughly fit the models, but the models don’t really explain what’s going on. One thing for sure: person-to-person transmissible diseases spread because they infect other people, and the more people that each case infects, the faster the disease spreads. The numbers infected per case is called the R zero.
Covid-19 seems to infect about 2 other people, on average [R zero = 2]. Thus, if the numbers of new cases tapers off, this MUST be because R zero is getting smaller, and if it get less than 1, the epidemic starts to disappear completely. For example: if the average infection rate drops to only 0.5 [R zero = 0.5], a 50/50 chance, then 100 cases will infect only 50 people, who will infect only 25 people, who will infect only 12.5 people, and soon the number drops to zero. Then all the currently infected cases get better, or die, and the epidemic is over. In South Korea, new daily cases have dropped to less than 50.
What affects R zero?
The disease itself, that can be more or less infectious.
Behavior changes:
The individual proximity to infected cases.
Masks to prevent droplet transmission.
Quarantines, to separate the infected cases from the uninfected.
Self-isolation, that does the same thing.
Avoiding crowds, to increase distance.
Hand cleaning, that reduces skin to skin transmission.
School & business closures that reduce transmission.
Medical changes:
Treatments, that shorten the duration of illness, and thus reduce the number of new infections.
Meds that make it harder to get the disease, as hydroxychloroquine might do.
Vaccines, to make people more resistant to the disease.
Population changes:
The development of ‘Herd Immunity”, where many people get the disease, recover, and then have immunity to the disease. Then there are fewer people that infected patients can transmit the disease to.
So everything we do to fight this epidemic comes down to reducing the R zero, the infection rate, to less than one. And the drop-offs mean that some things are working, but we don’t fully know what they are yet. Trump’s goal is to get the R zero down to less than 1, and keep it down, without wrecking the economy. Most of this will be done by modifying the behavior changes, to only use the ones that have the most infection rate impact, with the least economic disruption.
4 years ago
re: the Coronavirus . . .
In general, our counts are meaningless. Why? Because of what we don’t know. Our testing, until VERY recently, has been inadequate. The simple answer, which skews our numbers, too many people have or have had the Coronavirus but NEVER showed any symptoms. They need to but can’t be counted.
Please keep in mind that the common cold is in the Coronavirus category. Not sure? GOOGLE it. There are over 50 viruses that are part of the Coronavirus category. Okay maybe our doctors can explain the differences but . . . How are we to know and understand?
This is all done intentionally. We are all (IMHO) being manipulated.
Remember: FIGURES CAN LIE AND LIARS CAN FIGURE.
