AGAIN: Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection

17

Revised down again – ‘significantly”. When is reality going to inform actions? Remember these models were designed with social distancing.

Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection

By Adam Shaw | Fox News April 18, 2002:

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A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.

The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.

The institute said that change was partially driven by both higher estimates in states like New York and New Jersey, and lower projections in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and Florida.

“By incorporating the trend in cases alongside COVID-19 deaths in our model, many locations are now predicted to have longer peaks and are taking longer to move down the epidemic curve to zero deaths,” a statement from the institute said. “Subsequently, these places now have higher projections for cumulative COVID-19 deaths through the first wave.”

The projection is significantly lower than prior estimates from the IHME, which last month was predicting 84,000 deaths from the virus.

CROWDS FLOCK TO JACKSONVILLE BEACHES; MODEL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS FLORIDA’S EXPECTED CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL

Those supportive of such modeling say that it is not a crystal ball, but a snapshot of a situation based on the data and facts available at the time. As those facts change, so do the models. Since those 84,000 estimates, more states have implemented sweeping social distancing and lockdown measures in an effort to slow the spread of infections. Revising models show that those strategies are working, they say.

“That is modeled on what America is doing. That’s what’s happening,” Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters last week when asked about the modeling.

“It’s a little bit like forecasting the weather,” Dr. Christopher Murray, who helps create the model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told “America’s Newsroom” anchor Ed Henry on Friday.

“We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower. But, overall, we think that the general trend that we’ve seen since the beginning is a range between 40,000 to 150,000 deaths being where we’ll fallout for the country come June,” he said.
Influential coronavirus model predicts US deaths may stop by summer

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felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

So what data did you use to come up with this scare mongering Bill Gates, IHME data model? Italy, who we have nothing in common with? Isn’t it payback for the 100 million dollar vaccine “research” without results going?

You’ve been “studing” AIDS for 38 years and still need another 10 years for a vaccine. I would suspect the same farce is true of cancer. There is no real incentive to solve that disease either. Just think of the jobs and drugs that would become obsolete.comment image

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

Comrades, do as you are told or else!comment image

DemocracyRules
DemocracyRules
3 years ago
Reply to  felix1999

These are the numbers the USA CDC says died of common flu 1, 2 & 3 years ago
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
2016-2017 = 38,230, out of about 29 million influenza illnesses
2017-2018 = 61,099, out of about 45 million influenza illnesses
2018-2019 = 34,157, out of about 36 million influenza illnesses
April 18 2020, USA Covid-19 fatality total = 37,093
[But some Covid-19 miscounting is going on]

arthur facteau
arthur facteau
3 years ago
Reply to  DemocracyRules

Some? If you look up ‘corona deaths by age group’ and hit a few of the links, they will all pretty much say about the same thing, and will all have a comparison chart between corona and covid-19, and when you look at that, and then look at the inflated numbers, bearing in mind that the CDC said to count everything as corona, no matter what the death cause, and how Cuomo has been lying about the deaths from the start (I could go on at length here), and the fact that hospitals have been fudging the death certs from the start to get Federal $ as they have been losing $$ from the start of this and have had massive layoffs because they had to shut everything else down for this BS, and most of them have had NOTHING going on, then you will see how badly we’ve all been lied to. Those numbers are as fake as a Clinton dollar bill. Betting that that 37,093 you typed in is off by a good 80%….

DemocracyRules
DemocracyRules
3 years ago
Reply to  arthur facteau

It takes a while to get used to epidemiological research. There has never been a fully accurate death count in the history of epidemics. E.g., Spanish flu mortality estimates vary from 30 to 100 million, with people still fighting about it. And I did not say any of those numbers are accurate, I said those are the estimates.

arthur facteau
arthur facteau
3 years ago
Reply to  DemocracyRules

I understand, was just trying to point out that they are and have been giving out bogus #’s from the start, so there really is no way to count the deaths in any accurate way. You can look at the projections of the age groups and say ‘Well, this is the mortality rate for these age groups, then factor in people with compromised systems, then look at the worst hit areas, look at the medical data for these areas PRIOR to the infections, then from their try and figure out how many people had compromised systems (cancer, diabetes to the point that it might make a difference, COPD, other issues that might effect them if they get the virus no matter what the age group), and from there do the math, and you might actually have a much better chance of coming up with a much more accurate number concerning the death toll then what we are looking at. I would seriously put good money on it of you had the right people doing this.

Wasn’t trying to give you grief, you’re right in the comparison, and it actually makes a damn good point, this is nothing in comparison to the past stuff we had to deal with, and no shut down, so WTF??? Good point you made. I was just trying to point out how bogus the numbers we have are.

DemocracyRules
DemocracyRules
3 years ago
Reply to  arthur facteau

Arthur: “Wasn’t trying to give you grief.” Thanks, and it’s OK you weren’t giving me grief, discussion and disagreement are important.

The proxy method you mention could work. Proxy refers to things that point to the real data. In the 1793 Yellow Fever epidemic in Philly, they calculated mortality by number of burials, coffin orders, etc., and did pretty well with those estimates. One current way is to randomly select some hopsitals, and examine their hospitalizations for Covid-19, and asses the fatality percentage. Then project that percentage onto total hospitalizations to estimate total fatalities. Hospitalizations with a Covid-19 diagnosis is a fairly stable measure of serious Covid-19 cases. By using several proxies like this, one can home in on a reasonably accurate estimate. But the next time we must do better!

arthur facteau
arthur facteau
3 years ago
Reply to  DemocracyRules

Ah HA! I had no idea there was a term for that! Good to know! Considering what’s going on in N.Y. for example, and just using that, and just staying there alone, and I’m just guessing here, no science really involved, except for the fact that the CDC said to call everything corona a few weeks back, blow off actual death cause, then factor in that they were doing that anyway as they were pretty much shut down for all other patients except corona, and Cuomo had pretty much had all his patients put into a couple hospitals as it turns out into a couple hospitals to make it look like there was this major disaster, and was just showing that (all the other ones were in fact empty), doctors were having all deaths listed as corona just to get the federal funding because they were having to lay people off left and right as they were out of business!

Sad fact is, they were simply just shut down…they needed that to try and keep people employed, so #’s got fudged. Sad, but true. Then you look at the N.Y. Times calling them out when they said they hit the 10,000 mark, said flat out that at least 3,700 of them had not even been tested….

Then Cuomo was saying for a bit a while back that he was getting 3-450 a day dead from this little buggie in his city. Well, born and raised in Jersey, and I’m here to tell you, that’s the average death toll, daily, for that city, from natural causes…so, what, he’s calling those corona?

If you factor all that in, then you look at the actual cause of death by age group, and like I said, I’m just guessing here, I will go out on a limb here and say the actual REAL death count here in N.Y. City is probably more like a bit less then 10% of the actual number then what is actually been presented by Cuomo. I would stake my entire next Disability check on it. Seriously. I really mean that. That’s how little faith I have in these numbers, and how much faith I have in my research. I have spent a lot of time looking into this, and believe me, we have been soooo mislead. I know we are on the same page with this, preaching to the choir, I suppose…

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago

Snitch programs too! Do I hear some NAZI heel clicking going on?comment image

Angel
Angel
3 years ago

Gee, it’s the same way they have been predicting global warming.

Angel
Angel
3 years ago

comment image

felix1999
felix1999
3 years ago
Reply to  Angel

C!
What’s my prize?

Mark
Mark
3 years ago

Just great, we shut down the world based upon , junk science.

DVader
DVader
3 years ago

We’re already at 39,000+ and losing about 2000 a day. At that rate, we’ll reach 60,000 in less than 3 weeks.
And its taken nearly a nationwide lockdown to get to that level.

D A
D A
3 years ago
Reply to  DVader

uh huh….. and if you believe the Chinee numbers ( which it sounds like you might …since it’s a gov’t source)…. well….then…. this should be over in May.

Bart's Bantering
Bart's Bantering
3 years ago

Those “models” seem to be based on what they think the public might believe, not what is actually happening. Note that the WuFlu “deaths” are grossly inflated (including deaths from many other causes, but believed (read as pretended) that there MIGHT be some WuFlu bugs on the deceased – likely from 50% to 80% false death assignments according to various sources. They are just propaganda numbers and the WuFlu seems to be about as scary as the common cold.
This is the NWO trying to take down established governments via world economic fiasco, and the Satanic left in the US trying to do what the DNC/Hillary campaign failed to do with fake attacks on our President for the purpose of their failed Coup.
This is INSANITY!!!

RockyMtSpirit
RockyMtSpirit
3 years ago

Them ‘coronavirus models’ may prove to be dangerous because it might cause the average American, even Americans with half-a-brain God gave a cantaloupe, to suddenly realize that if the ‘coronavirus models’ are so inaccurate, then how accurate exactly are the ‘climate change models’ being used? This could make people start thinking and questioning, and that’s the last thing the left wants.

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