[ April 16, 2024 ]
It’s the first article I’ve read since this whole hysterical panic began that makes any sense.
The question is, what is the end game to this soft martial law? Merely to insure people get it slower?
Questioning the Clampdown
Will people lose faith when they find out they are expected to get the virus anyway?
Story continues below advertisementBy Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.March 17, 2020:
Experts now agree the virus’s spread can be slowed but not contained. It will take its place among mostly seasonal respiratory infections. After a time, recurrent outbreaks will be moderated by a large number of potential carriers who have immunity from their last infection.
And then we can ask some questions. The cost to Americans of the economic shutdown is vast. What are they getting for their money? Essentially less excess demand for respiratory ventilators and other emergency care than can currently be supplied.
This demand will come largely from the elderly and chronically ill, who would be competing for these resources with the usual large number of old and ill people already suffering from acute respiratory distress as a result of routine flu and cold infections. A silver lining will be fewer cold and flu victims overall thanks to social distancing to fight Covid-19.
Some number of respiratory deaths will be avoided (really delayed since we all die) but we’ll be spending a lot more than we’ve ever been willing to spend before to avoid flu deaths. Eighty-three percent of our economy will be suppressed to relieve pressure on the 17% represented by health care. This will have to last months, not weeks, to modulate the rate at which a critical mass of 330 million get infected and acquire natural immunity.
Will people put up with it once they realize they are still expected to get the virus? Wouldn’t it make more sense to pour resources into isolating the vulnerable rather than isolating everyone? Basically aren’t we really just praying that summer will naturally suppress transmission and get us off the hook of an untenable policy?
But then multiple experiments are under way. China seems to have quashed the spread beyond Hubei province and spared 99.9% of its population from infection—for now. Can China really hold off the virus from being reintroduced or re-exploding during the 18 months it may take for a vaccine to be invented and distributed?
Italy is the test case for being a day late and dollar short in voluntary social distancing—the steps people can take to reduce their risk of contracting and spreading the disease. But Italy may also be the first to emerge from the tunnel, with everyone having had their chance to get sick, and the country being able to get back to work.
Britain is wavering on what seemed a modified, limited Italian strategy. Until Tuesday, it was considering letting its health-care sector absorb as much stress as necessary to avoid a sweeping, draconian shutdown of the economy.
The U.S. may or may not be a test case of a large continental country where hot spots of contagion shock other places into buttoning up and hunkering down, curbing excess local demand for intensive-care beds. But the cost will be astronomical. Essentially we are killing other sectors indefinitely to manage the load on the health-care sector.
Understandably, politicians believe faith in government requires avoiding Italy-like scenes. But turned on its head here is the 50-year-old “QALY” revolution: the idea of measuring the burden of disease and benefit of health care based on “quality-adjusted life year,” typically valued at $50,000 to $150,000. In the present instance, the cost isn’t just medical intervention (e.g., ventilator use) but the cost of an economywide shutdown to limit the number of candidates for ventilation at any one time. I don’t know what the figure is, but the QALY value we are placing on avoiding Italy-like deaths is surely a high multiple of any figure previously considered realistic.
America’s shutdown strategy is interesting because it was not a choice that any one person or authority made. You can’t blame the NBA or Tom Hanks or Congress. Donald Trump is being pilloried for leaning against panic, urging comparisons to the flu, suggesting the stock market is overreacting. Like the bus, another reason to pillory Mr. Trump will come along in five minutes and not one of his critics will engage in soul-searching over whether he might have had a point.
Even the fuss over testing is a bit overdone. Nowhere in the world has there been enough testing to detect most coronavirus cases amid millions of seasonal colds and flu cases. This problem exists in China, Europe and the U.S. A British estimate is that 12 people have the virus for every one found by testing. In any case, testing becomes a tad mootish now if the goal is to isolate even young and healthy people.
There’s a vast gap between people washing their hands, avoiding crowds, shielding the old and using good judgment, and sweeping lockdowns and curfews. Anything government spends now will be a good investment if it prepares the economy quickly to resume its growth and healthy functioning. But there are known unknowns. Elections will be held. Politicians will stake out stands in response to the applause meter, not logic. If I could take out one insurance policy on behalf of the country, it would be this: Joe Biden should immediately name Amy Klobuchar as his running mate so she can step in if the success of his campaign so far is not so rejuvenating of Mr. Biden as it now seems.
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32 Comments
4 years ago
Trump’s goal is to flatten the curve and slow the spread of this infectious virus across the country. I have a mixed reaction to the financial stimulus. It hasn’t be finalized yet, so we’ll see… Italy totally screwed up and so did China.
4 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
It would be a major change for Americans to turn to prayer to God in a repentant spirit. It is still possible that healing of the land can occur if this became a priority.
Unfortunately we still have Rashida Tlaib-types cursing this suggestion offered by the President. We need to adjust our priorities as a nation or no one will see relief.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
dont worry we have way more than 10 righteous in US. Or in certain areas, which will become obvious to see.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
Wouldn’t expect any improvement from you, Pal. Get busy. Toilet paper is waiting for you at the store. And hand wipes.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
It’s my time to waste, Bud.
Sooner than later there will be many in this country with all kinds of time to waste.
Think about it, Emiticon.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
Well, greetings again, McBuzzie. Sorry for the delay, but duty calls ….
My “imaginary friend” created more than just rivers … anyway … my friend. Cry me.
You strike me as being quite religious yourself. Frankly, you have outdone the best I have to offer in the realm of religion, methinks. To your credit. Help me understand your motive in your response.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
Maybe sacrificing royal genital blood to fire would work?
you like superstitions at least go with an interesting one!!!!!!!!!!!!
pal!!!!!!!!!!!
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
I upvoted you McBuzzie, because you almost quoted the Bible. Almost. But you left out the best part, intended for you: The fool hath said in his heart, there is no God. Psalm 14:1, Psalm 53:1.
Keep ’em coming. I’m still here. Taking on any comer. Good nite, McBuzzie.
4 years ago
Reply to
Mark Steiner
Right where I should be, my dear McBuzzie. Enjoying your flaming posts against what you call religion, and against who you call religious persons. Why do you hate yourself? You are as religious as anyone out there. You have a system of beliefs you would fall on your sword to maintain.
Keep smiling!
4 years ago
Nobody (I know) asks the next question …
… Are we going to do this every year?
As our ability to identify viruses expands – and in particular as it races towards the singularity of fingerprinting them – which will come because it’s literally just chemistry and details – something “robots” (automated testing) and computers can handle …
We will be able to take a swab from a patient and upon entering it into the testing device (which will get smaller and smaller and smaller and then smaller) … and get readout of the dam thing just like reading the blockchain on a cryptocurrency … because the virus’ history is written in it’s RNA…
Which means …
The ability to blame ANY death by the proximate cause of a viral caused respiratory ailment (for one example) … will be almost exact.
That is … when Ms. XYZ with cancer, aged 89.7 living in Nursing Home 123 in GodKnowsWhere, Planet Earth passes to the Great Beyond from pneumonia … and gets swabbed … and finds Virus ABCDEF123456789 …
We will know the virus’ whole history.
And God Forbid If a Republican, Nationalist, Traditional, Pro-Human, Anti-Crime Politician was in charge of Any Government’s Healthcare Control Agency … b/c then THAT POLITICIAN AND HIS PARTY MURDERED MS. XYZ.
The fact that any Demokkkrat, anti-nationalist, anti-traditional, anti-human, anti-normal, pro-crime politician will not be accused of responsibility is irrelevant.
We have seen this movie and we know how it works. It’s too late for the Wuhan virus episode of this S*t show … but
Americans – in particular – must decide how we will deal with the potential to exploit our technology for creating blame and crisis where none should exist – and where NONE WILL exist when the Powers and Principalities control the driver’s seats.
We don’t have to choose blindness to disease v. submission to the Nasties … but if we let ourselves freak out every time a *new* virus shows up during flu season … we will not be ready for real diseases.
What will happen … if we let the Nasties run the show … AND a real Bubonic Plague-Polio-Spanish Flu-bio weapon appears??? …. THEY WILL SAY NOTHING AND LET PEOPLE DIE … and Coronavirus will look like the picnic it is.
Just wondering … thoughts?
4 years ago
Reply to
Dan Knight
trump got rolled on this by the deep state, and he’s finished. the fact that the democrat-muslim media is now patting him on the back shows how badly he got his ass kicked. the precedent that is setting, which is that our liberties can be shut down whenever the deep state demands, is horrifying
4 years ago
Reply to
tituspullo
The Deep State has been acting in collusion with China on all this. Their motives, though ulterior, are clear as a sunny day.
4 years ago
Reply to
Drifter
Follow the money. Guess who seeks to gain if Trump, G-d forbid, were to be ousted in November. Not us. Them.
4 years ago
Reply to
tituspullo
You misjudge Trump. He is fighting for us in any way he can. He is under allot of pressure to clean this up.
4 years ago
Reply to
tituspullo
You sound very schizoid. Trollish, even. Who are you backing for President and what facts can you share that support what you say?
4 years ago
Reply to
Dan Knight
Deep breathes Buzz …
… inhale … exhale … repeat a few times
… get a grip
… relax
… it’s gonna be okay.
As for eating bat and snake … that’s definitely not on my diet.
But our cars kill more people every year than this virus will.
Are you going to give up driving?
If you’re not going to walk … you don’t have the right perspective.
God love ya’ Buzz!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dan Knight
Wow … you do realize the Chinese Wuhan Virus has a very low case fatality rate right?
And I’m in a low risk cohort.
So you’re wishing me a short, mild cold?
Typical, foolish, and rude way to communicate.
… I wish you would stop being a hypocrite and try walking to work.
God love ya’ Buzz!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dan Knight
Hi Buzz,
You wrote: “There are no gods, not even one!!!!!!!!!!!”
Ha! Eleven exclamation marks. ;-))
Who told you that Buzz? God?
As to what CDC said.
Yes, I know.
Thank you for cutting and pasting CDC’s comments.
The problem here is that the disease cannot be both
1. An asymptomatic spreader AND
2. Extremely dangerous.
It’s also not as contagious as supposed.
If this were not the case, the virus would have been easier to stop.
The disease has to be relatively mild for most cases, or it would be easier to track. The ‘experts’ are guessing 50-80% of the cases are asymptomatic – and that’s possible – but it’ probably higher.
Granted: We should be concerned about a biphasic reaction (a second phase that’s worst than the first), also about a depression of the immunity system, reports of long-term damage to the lungs (temporary or permanent), and recurrences due to a possible lack of immunity.
That’s fair enough to worry about – but it would be specific to the Wuhan Chinese Virus. And we won’t know until the scientists start cracking this thing’s secrets.
To be clear … I am not trying to downplay the Chinese Wuhan virus … and I myself am isolating – because I care, and I can, and I don’t want to spread the disease … especially to my elderly friends … but …
Are we going to shut down for every flu virus from now on?
Again – the technology will become available to track EVERY viral infection.
Do YOU want to be held criminally or civilly liable for giving your neighbor a virus?
That’s entirely possible – if we keep on panicking.
Again, God love ya’ Buzz!
4 years ago
Reply to
Dan Knight
😉 … Stop panicking, Buzz.
If the virus was extremely dangerous and an asymptomatic spreader … it would still reveal itself … with symptoms.
The Enemedia fear mongering cannot change this fact – which is the basis for epidemiology. Obviously there are different types of risks that have limited symptoms – but danger and symptoms are highly correlated.
If the R0 was as high as the Enemedia make it out to be … no one would have gotten off the Diamond Princess without being infected. Yet most were not infected. Less than 20% were infected. But according the hype, we’re all going to die.
You don’t type very much, and that’s a good thing. It makes your life easier.
God loves you, Buzz
4 years ago
this is a dry run for doing even worse to us in the name of climate change. you watch, you heard it here first. we have 2 dead in CO that are old folks alleged to have died from this hoax (would be interesting to see how that was determined), and for that the entire state is now paralyzed? more people than that died in car crashes in CO this week…does that mean we need to ban the driving of cars? the gullibility and sheep-like behavior of americans is astonishing me
4 years ago
Reply to
tituspullo
Not just gullible and sheep-like. They have very short memories; they are entirely fickle, going by whatever way the wind blows; and tying in to the sheep-like part, they are easily manipulated, herded, jerked around and led through the nose.
An article mentioning a routine from George Carlin’s “We Are All Diseased” suggests we may pass this – but our liberties won’t. And it is much, much worse in cities and states controlled by leftist Democrats.
4 years ago
Reply to
tituspullo
A hoax… right. Do you actually have any facts to astonish everyone else?
4 years ago
Never forget that the Free Traders from both parties put us here. The only good globalists are room temperature…
4 years ago
The DNC put a fork in her…!
4 years ago
The shut down is a time out to get resources underway to deal with the crisis. President Trump just had a news conference, that lasted quite a while. There was information that face mask production was going from the construction industry to medical industry and use, a change that required action to relieve liability. That was something that should have been done decades ago.
America being bound up so much by liability and regulations that production was switched to offshore manufacturing.
Maybe Trump’s administration will be able to continue cutting red tape, which was prominent during the early days of his Presidency, but now with the Coronavirus staring us in the face, it’s actually critical to cut all this red tape to keep the country from falling apart.
The company, 3M and its manufacturing ability to produce millions of face masks was mentioned.
Other components necessary for biodefense, such as as booties and suits, that the medical industry desperately needs are also being addressed, and production will be switched from construction use to medical applications as necessary.
Apparently the reason this wasn’t done previously was again, liability.
The President again brought up the issue that China had delayed notification of the epidemic and permitted it to spread beyond its borders.
Actually, early on, a Communist Party official had laboratory specimens destroyed, around the first of the year. This is essentially the same as changing data, which in this country would likely be a felony.
Dr. Li, an Ophthalmology doctor in China had put out a warning to colleagues in China warning them about the similarity of the pneumonia patients he was seeing to the SARS virus which had been in China in 03. Dr. Li and about ten other doctors were visited by the police and signed statements their action was against the law and it was a forced apology.
Then the next thing that happened was Dr. Li got sick and died from the virus, causing outrage in China, and it should cause outrage throughout the world.
Trump has every right to point out who the culprits are in this whole entire mess.
Now the entire world is having to deal with it through draconian methods.
Hopefully the shutdown won’t last long while medicines are being developed, or found which can treat the virus successfully.
Probably the world needs to be prepared as much as possible for these viral outbreaks, but with an increasing population, and increasingly crowded conditions throughout the world, there’s more chance for dangerous viruses and illnesses to emerge. You really can’t foresee every contingency and have to deal with things as they are.
Trump was viciously chastized for cutting communication and flights with China early on, although in retrospect, it was the right thing to do. He was attacked for actions by the FDA, and the Democrat candidates were saying the US didn’t buy WHO testing kits, but it turns out the kits weren’t offered for sale to the US and the US is trying to fix the problems and now with commercial labs taking up the slack, testing should improve. No question this is a tremendous burden for the American economy, and we can only hope, through the present measures, that the pandemic virus can be arrested and we can get back to normal soon. My guess, probably two or three weeks, but could go on a couple of months if things go the wrong way.
4 years ago
Why the use of foul language?
