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‘Models don’t match reality’: White House coronavirus chief rejects doomsday predictions

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British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.

The Federalist: Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.

“For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries,” the report reads.

[…[ But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.

‘Models don’t match reality’: White House coronavirus chief rejects doomsday predictions as US tops Covid-19 case count

By: RT, 26 Mar, 2020:

Even as the US overtook China in the official number of Covid-19 cases, the top physician leading the White House effort urged Americans not to panic, as models predicting the death of millions keep being proven wrong everywhere.

“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in neither China, South Korea nor Italy,” Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters on Thursday. She noted that the alarmist statistics about the spread of the virus said Italy would reach 400,000 deaths by now, but the actual death toll was nowhere near that.

Italy, which has been the hardest-hit in terms of deaths from Covid-19, has reported over 80,000 cases with 8,215 fatalities and counting, just as the US surged to first place in the number of confirmed cases (over 83,000), but with far lower mortality of 1,200 deaths attributed to the virus so far.

There is “no reality on the ground where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 8-12 weeks,” Birx said.

Nineteen out of 50 US states have had a “persistently low” level of infection, with fewer than 200 registered cases, according to Birx, with 55 percent of new cases coming from the New York City metropolitan area. Several other urban centers – Detroit, Michigan and Chicago, Illinois – are also a matter of concern to the health officials.

However, of the 550,000 tests run in the US so far, only 14 percent came back positive – and 86 percent of those tested, who had to have symptoms in the first place, did not have Covid-19.

Birx pointed out that either there is a significant number of people out there not showing symptoms but carrying the virus – which the authorities are now trying to find, using new antibody tests – “or we have the transmission completely wrong.”

 

Video: Dr. Deborah Birx calmly but brutally tears apart the liberal media hysteria about a future in which hospitals will be faced with such a shortage at ventilators that they’ll have to decide who gets resuscitated and who is left to die #coronaviruspandemic

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