[ April 22, 2024 ]
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato predicts a blue wave in the House on Election Day. He’s not sure if it will be a tsunami, a medium wave or a small one. But he said a “red wave ain’t going to happen, it’s just a question about how big the blue wave is.”
Let’s go back to Sabato’s final predictions for the 2016 election. He anticipated that Clinton would defeat Trump, winning 322 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 216. He said the Senate would be a tie. He correctly predicted the Republicans would win the house, however he underestimated the margin of victory. So, let’s hope he’s as wrong now as he was then.
A look at the House races ranked as toss ups tells a different story. According to Real Clear Politics polling data, 32 races currently fall into the toss up category. The following table shows the most recent poll results for each race and based on that information, an estimation of whether they lean Republican, Democratic or in one case, a tie.
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I must preface this by saying that I am not, nor have I ever been, a pollster or a political analyst. The point of this exercise was simply to take a deeper look at how the individual toss up races might affect the outcome. When we see a headline stating that 204 seats lean Democratic, 199 lean Republican and 32 are toss ups, it is reasonable to conclude that the Democrats will win the house. By estimating the direction of each race separately, we gain more clarity.
Of the 32 races, 18 lean currently Republican, 13 lean Democratic and one is impossible to determine.
As mentioned above, Real Clear Politics currently ranks 204 seats as likely or leans Democratic and 199 as likely or leans Republican. Adding the expected toss ups would leave the Democrats with 217 and the Republicans with 217. CA48, being so difficult to call would determine the final number.
Although several of the polls were conducted in October, most of these results are from September. And polls tend to tighten the closer we get to November.
A glance at the recent ranking changes provides another indication that prospects are brightening for Republicans. Since October 4th, eleven house races have moved from “toss up” to “leans GOP,” four from “leans DEM” to “toss up,” and only one has changed from “leans GOP” to “toss up.”
The stats from September 1-18th tell the opposite story. Seven races changed from “toss ups” to “leans DEM,” six from “leans GOP” to “toss up,” one “likely GOP” to “leans GOP,” only one “toss up” to “leans GOP,” and one “likely DEM” to “leans DEM.”
So, the Republicans have gained some momentum in October. Part of the reason for that might be voter disgust over the Democrats’ performance throughout the Kavanaugh confirmation process, and their uncivilized behavior in general. Other reasons may be Trump’s impressive string of successes and his tireless campaigning for Republican candidates nationwide.
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72 Comments
5 years ago
Typical Wahoo. Always politically correct, yet wrong on issues.
5 years ago
Hope he is proven wrong again. Crooks and pro-jihadi criminals all around.
CNN and MSM canonises Mc Cain while Egyptian media expose him for being Leading supporter of Muslim Brotherhood in America and Middle east https://tinyurl.com/y9hk3dpk
Its absurd and farcical how MSM Lies and brainwashes American citizens
5 years ago
Trump voters misrepresent their intentions or just stay silent… Right up to the ballot box on Election Day.
As Nate Silver found out back in 2016, Sabato can’t encompass or quantify this reality.
5 years ago
Reply to
Vectormanic
I don’t talk to pollsters. Even NRA reps are often snarky and patronizing. I don’t have time for that crap. Most folks I know are the same way.
5 years ago
Reply to
frankstclair
I’ve been polled once or twice in my country. I may or may not have told the truth about my voting intentions.
5 years ago
Reply to
OverIt
They never call me…I wound’t mind if they did.
All we ever get is calls for money to finance these creeps when is it re-election time.
After that you never hear from them again and they do the globalist bidding. In a couple of years we will leave shiiitthole NJ for good!
5 years ago
Reply to
frankstclair
I’ve been polled once or twice in my country. I may or may not have told the truth about my voting intentions.
5 years ago
Reply to
Vectormanic
….neither can Silver…..the only person who correctly predicted the 2016 election was Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University. He developed a computer algorithm that predicted Trump win with a 95% accuracy……I saw him on Lou Dobbs and few other shows….the man is amazing.
I never believe most partisan polls….most of them have their own agenda and poll with questions designed to get the answers they want.
5 years ago
Isn’t he the dude that sells “my pillow” LOL.
5 years ago
Fake Pollster actual Democratic Operative.
5 years ago
Once the full impact of the “Kavanaugh effect” becomes obvious, you will see not a blue wave but a “red Florence”.
The commiecrats way overplayed their hand on that score.
5 years ago
Reply to
ladywarrior
I predict 58 Republican seats for the Senate
– and the new polls support that
– appears to be a strong ‘Kavanaugh effect’ [approx 5 point increase for Repubs]
– and ‘Open Borders effect’ [approx 5 point decrease for Dem radicalism]
– even without those effects the Repubs will keep the Senate
– and probably the House too
5 years ago
Reply to
DemocracyRules
…and I will predict 60 republican seats in the Senate….and the house will gain 16….that’s just my take on it….
The Dimms are now down to trying to keep Killary off the campaign trail and only having private fundraisers with her….
5 years ago
Reply to
ladywarrior
Yes
– the polls are heavily skewed
– by the same pollsters who predicted a Hillary landslide in 2016
– and even then, the polls predict that Republicans will keep the Senate
– once a correction factor is added to include:
– revulsion by 40% of Dems of the abuse of Kavanaugh
– revulsion by all, over the ‘Open Borders’ rhetoric
– and the strong tendency of conservatives to withhold opinions
– then the numbers show a strong Red Wave in both Houses
5 years ago
Reply to
Drew the Infidel
I agree! The Dems have lost the Senate majority and while the GOP will lose some House seats if we all vote Right, the House will stay Republican by a narrow margin with a purified GOP instead of Republican Establishment Cogs!
Let’s pray that George Soros doesn’t win the DA race in Bexar County, TX for his pedophile protector attorney candidate, Joe Gonzales (s is for excrement) and Beto O”Rourke, the gun-grabber doesn’t make the US Senate against TX Sen Ted Cruz!
Sen Ted Cruz deserves some credit as he is hitting O’Rourke hard in all directions with strong ads leaving O’Rourke stumbling, afraid to say anything that Cruz will use against him! Sen Ted Cruz symbolizes how Republicans need to be-exposing and beating up on the Dems constantly! Make it so bad for the Dems they won’t want to leave their Hollywood fundraiser parties to really run as we run over them with the voters, leaving them politically incapacitated in the street!
Politics is about winners and First Losers! By all means beat the DemocRATS needs to be how it is! Shooting them becomes a distant possibility should democratic means fail has been successfully done, especially by the Left in history and when done by the Right, saved nations like in The Kingdom of Spain! I believe the Kapp Putsch would have saved Germany from Hitler! Would the ends of saving millions from the Holcaust & Soviet conquest of Eastern Europe been worth the means? I leave it for others to contemplate that question which hopefully will remain a philosophical thought for the ages! Again, shame Wolfgang Kapp is not more known as a rightist who did all he could to prevent what he foresaw as a hopeless deterioration that would become catastrophy for Germany in his effort as a nationalist to be their Ioannis Metaxas despite his illness with ongoing cancer!
5 years ago
Pro-Dem pundits and media alike are missing one big element this time around because they can’t face it: the large number of Dems that are profoundly disgusted and embarrassed by the deeply un-American behavior of their leaders. To the point that many have declared they would vote Republican this time around, some switching for good, while the others intend to send a powerful message, something like “behave or else you’re toast in 2020”. Given the extraordinary capacity of the current crop of Dem leaders and candidates to display all the clinical signs of fanaticism, the chances are very good that they will not hear nor heed the warning, and the result will be as spectacular as their humiliating defeat in 2016. That said, every single Republican in the nation needs to get off the couch and go vote to make sure that this happens. Complacency is not in order.
5 years ago
Reply to
jjs110
…some Dimms have told me that will either vote Republican or stay home….either way it’s win/win for us….the older Democrats I know say they no longer recognize their party and are actually afraid of them and what they will do……even though I am a conservative….I have to agree….they are very scary and unhinged…I actually agree with Rand Paul….someone is going to get killed….especially if the Dimms lose in this midterm…which they will.
5 years ago
Sabato is a pseudointellect and gets media attention bc of his leftist leanings. Called 2016 for hillary. Find out who sabato likes in the super bowl then bet heavily the other way. Kindrid spirit of nate “im a hard core democrat masquerading as an analyst” silver
5 years ago
If sabato is saying blue wave, it bodes well for a red wave. This guy is consistently wrong and calls everything for his favorite team, the dnc. Probably has obozo and hillary bumper stickers on his prius
5 years ago
Take nothing for granted.
VOTE R even if you have to hold your nose.
DEMS will cheat like there is no tomorrow.
5 years ago
The ONLY pollster ho has earned my respect: Rasmussen
5 years ago
Reply to
A Son of Liberty
The LA Times polling has actually done a decent job over the last decade; surprising given that it leans left politically. Their methodology is both valid and reliable, I’d give them some credit too.
5 years ago
Reply to
Vectormanic
The LA Times and IBD polling both called 2016 for President Trump.
I think Rasmussen got it right that Hillary won the popular vote. If illegals were subtracted out, then Trump would have gotten the popular vote too. I don’t remember where Rasmussen stood on the final vote – electorial. Did Rasmussen call it for Trump?
I like what I am seeing with IBD/TIPP Poll
https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
My understanding was that the Associated Press called Trump’s election.
5 years ago
Reply to
VoiceInDesert
The AP only reports what others say. They don’t poll.
The AP and Reuters all hate Trump.
I am concerned about losing the majority in Congress.
I am unclear on how that is going AFTER the Kavanugh confirmation.
I’d like to see some polls after that.
“Although several of the polls were conducted in October,
most of these results are from September.”
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
I stand corrected. Voted on absentee ballot yesterday. Hopefully, after the savage attacks on Kavanaugh, voters will be more motivated to vote those bums out.
5 years ago
Reply to
VoiceInDesert
…not to mention Holder telling his people to go out and “kick” conservatives and Republicans…..and Killary saying they can’t be “civil” to Republicans….
I’ve decided to practice some of my martial arts from years ago and especially how to crush a larynx if I’m attacked…..
5 years ago
Reply to
ladywarrior
And a savage actually did kick a pro-life woman. A couple months earlier, the same one pushed another pro-life woman into a pole, then fled. These members of the “angry far left mob” don’t play nice.
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
I forget which state it was….but a couple of months ago they found out over a hundred thousand of their votes were either dead people or illegals….
I believe if every single state had to actually investigate and report…..that so-called popular vote win by Killary would evaporate like water in Death Valley in July…..
5 years ago
Reply to
A Son of Liberty
……That’s too bad…because he was a wrong as the rest of them….
The only pollster who was 100% correct was Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stoney Brook University in NY…..he’s been quietly and accurately predicting elections for quite some time….he does it with his computer algorithm he developed. He predicted Trump would win with a 95% accuracy rate…..he was the only one.
5 years ago
The Senate is looking good and maybe even picking up a few seats.
My concern is Congress. I want to see some polling done AFTER the Kavanugh confirmation.
I think the DEMS really blew that one. Ford was outrageous.
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
It is time for Soros and his sons to be taken out. In this case the sins of the father are visited on the sons. They are no better than he is. They are younger and more dangerous. This is a three headed Hydra. All heads must be cut off.
5 years ago
Reply to
Larry Bernstein
All these mass shooters who kill innocent people could go down in history as heroes if they would take out those that really need to be taken out on the left.
5 years ago
Reply to
Larry Bernstein
…he also has a daughter who runs some of his businesses….I heard that there is an arrest warrant out for him in Russia for trying to manipulate their currency….
I think it’s time for Trump and Putin to have a private sit-down talk….shortly after that a Black Ops team swoops down and grabs Soros and his spawn….never to be heard from again….shortly after there is a rumor about new prisoners at a Russian Gulag in Siberia
5 years ago
Reply to
ladywarrior
“ladywarrior” I did not know he had a daughter. So now it is a 4 headed Hydra that still needs to be dealt with. I’d like to see them all rotting in a prison eating insect and talking to spiders like Renfield.
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
Don’t buy that feel sorry for Ford thing….she knew exactly what she was doing and Rush has said there was something about her prepping for this long before we even knew about it……
Plus, evidence has come out that she once worked with another woman and taught her how to cheat on a Lie Detector test……They all knew what they were doing…from Feinstein, to Schumer, to Ford…..
She lied about being afraid to fly, she lied about small spaces she couldn’t stand, she lied, lied, lied….and she stole from a former boyfriend…..nothing she says is credible….
5 years ago
Reply to
ladywarrior
Where do the mentally ill go……………to teach in a university so they can infect our youth. I have no kind feelings for this sick piece of crap. I wish on her what she tried to do to Kavanaugh. May her life go downhill from here. She deserves every despicable thing that comes her way and als her lawyer Katz, feinstein, booker, hirano and harris.
5 years ago
Don’t forget: Larry Sabato is a ‘Moderate’ Democrat with a penchant for selling ‘crack'(?) pipe dreams.
‘Nuff said!
BTW: There ain’t no such thing as a ‘Moderate’ Democrat!
5 years ago
Reply to
Willik
“Although several of the polls were conducted in October, most of these results are from September.”
I want more OCTOBER polling. I think DEMS really blew their credibility with all this FAKE RAPE CRAP.
We need BOTH houses. The Senate looks good but I can’t get a handle on Congress. I just signed up with Gallup polls to see what they are coming up with in more recent polling in October. I don’t care about Sept. polling.
Poll: McSally Takes Lead Over Sinema in Arizona as Republicans Solidify Senate Majority Prospects
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/10/poll-mcsally-takes-lead-over-sinema-in-arizona-as-republicans-solidify-senate-majority-prospects/
5 years ago
Larry badly missed in his POTUS prediction. Why give him credibility now? Seriously. Whatever he predicts. He is the clock that struck 13 – no longer to be believed.
5 years ago
Sabato predicted Hillary would win , the guy is a liberal Asshat pushing dishonest polling
Doesn’t this moron realize a large majority of conservatives often tell those doing the polling the EXACT opposite of how they plan to vote?
5 years ago
Reply to
Eelo Fudpucker
I have never been called by a pollster in my 7 decades…..but if they did I’d lie through my teeth…..or, I wouldn’t answer them at all. However, as I am a registered Republican and I know they have lists of everybody, where they live, how they voted in the past, etc….they are not going to call me.
When I was with the TEA Party in 210-2012 in another state I actually had copies of those lists as we went around in neighborhoods handing out fliers…..
I doubt pollsters are calling Republicans……they want the preponderance of their calls to be Dimms and make like it is representative of all the people…..
5 years ago
Don’t believe what the left says. Stop believing them. Just get out and vote, or be like the other places we read about here, and everywhere. The news is out there, if you don’t know it, that’s on you.
Vote right.
5 years ago
5 years ago
Larry Sabato has been wrong so many times, his political bias is showing…
5 years ago
Sabato leans to the democrats. As far as polls go, if I take a pollsters call I never give a correct answer. To anything.
5 years ago
So the reality is that the dems only have to cheat in 21 -32 races to control the House. Those are the districts that need to be audited for Soros vote counting machines, dead people voting, ballot box stuffing, illegals voting, etc.
5 years ago
remember, pollsters have to keep you in suspense, otherwise they would not have a job, why would people all of a sudden vote dems back in? think about it, voter fraud is the real problem
5 years ago
Hey Lar, it’s blue wave bye bye.
5 years ago
How can an election which has, as one of the principal planks of it’s platform, “I hate the color of President Trump’s hair”, be taken seriously?
5 years ago
5 years ago
I’m hoping for a good Republican result but the slavish clinging to “the pollsters were wrong in 2016 so they will always be wrong” is not a good idea. Trump was a Black Swan, and this midterm election is very different from that unusual situation.
5 years ago
Reply to
Steve_o
….I still see it as a vote for Republicans in the midterms as a confirmation of President Trump’s election….
…and judging by the very over-the-top, violent, scary reactions of the Dimms before the Midterms….I see a clear Red tsunami…which will further enrage the Left….
5 years ago
Larry Sabato was dead wrong in the last election….as was Nate Silver, Rasmussen, and all the rest of them …
…the ONLY PERSON to accurately predict Trump’s win was Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stoney Brook University in NY…..over the years he developed a computer algorithm that accurately predicts elections…..he predicted with a 95% accuracy that Trump would win…..he was the only one who was right.
The only good thing about all the ones that predicted wrong…..was the fun of watching all the shocked Libtards breaking down, crying, screaming, and pitching fits….like 3 year olds…..now that was entertainment. And, it explains their behavior today as they are still in shock and lashing out….
5 years ago
There is not only “no reason” to vote for Dimms…..there is a bushel basket of reasons NOT TO VOTE Dimm…..I’m just waiting for one of Eric Holder’s nazi followers to kick me…..they will end up with a crushed larynx……
5 years ago
Sabato is operating under old assumptions.
5 years ago
Little Larry, is just another operative of the Democrat-Communist-Islamic-Nazi Terrorist Organization.
You can put lipstick on a Pig, it’s still just a Pig and can’t fly.
5 years ago
Those pollsters do not appear to be the most reliable sources.
Nonetheless – I believe it is up to pro-American voters to get out there and squash the Demokkkrats.
The Dem’s have a 4-15% lead, depending on who you believe due solely to gerrymandering and illegal migration before we get to voter fraud which must be substantial.
NOTE – Every Live Voter FOR America robs the Dem’s of TWO votes. It cancels one drone vote, and it robs them of a registered voter name they can use to cast a ballot.
So it is ALL IMPORTANT to get out there and vote – and take as many friends with you as possible.
5 years ago
I am not a pollster, either. The demorats are showing their true colors with antifa, and a host of other Soros’ supported groups. They are unhinged. Look at the shitshow that was supposed to be a hearing in one of the most hallowed halls of Justice. Looking at a nominee’s high school year book and asking said nominee to explain a term for flatulence? Really? How do they expect any sane person to want them in power. I am hoping for a Red Wave in November and I will be looking forward to how crazy they can get. Rush’s critics said that when Bush 43 got elected that his ratings would fall because he would not have the Clintons to mock for three hours a day. He said not to worry because the dems get even crazier when they loose. As usual, he was right.
5 years ago
Sounds like Larry lives in his own little world.
5 years ago
#JustWalkAway!
5 years ago
Sabato is frequently a guest on FOX . First , he’s an academic –Strike One!; secondly, he’s been wrong many times—he’s an academic ; thirdly, he presumes to use “political scientific method” which is equivalent to rolling dice or reading tea leaves. I don’t trust a word he says anymore .
5 years ago
The Democrat party song should be “Street fighting man” by the Rolling Stones. We’ll see if the antics of the Democrats calling for violence and slander help them in a few weeks. Let’s hope for the sake of our nation the majority of Americans don’t want leaders calling for violence against their neighbors and political opponents.
5 years ago
He has been wrong before, most notably in 2016
