A new poll by Quinnipiac University came out about the midterm election.
The result is bad for the Republicans. Democrats are 14 points ahead over Republicans on the “generic House ballot”.
“You look at this poll and you go ohhh, pretty bad for the Republican Party” said Bill O’Reilly in a video published on billoreilly.com,”
“But then you look at how the poll was done, continue O’Reilly whom I consider as one of the smartest political observer, 25 percent of respondents to the Quinnipiac poll are Republican, 34 percent Democrat. So the poll is garbage”.
I have never been good at predicting election results, and I resist the natural temptation to make any. I am better at analyzing what is going on. But if my memory is of any help, wasn’t it that all the polls said Trump has no chance to win? (Beside the Los Angeles Times who uses a different method in that they keep polling the exact same people). Even the king of the polls, the gifted Nat Silver fell from his throne and had it all wrong and predicted Trump will lose.
Quinnipiac is one of the organizations who got it wrong in 2016, and are using the same wrong methods now. Why should we listen to them, and believe them now? We shouldn’t. “Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results” said Einstein. But whether we realize it or not, even if we don’t trust the poll, we cannot resist being influenced by them. It’s vicious. And they know it.
Anyway. It’s bad. Manipulating the polls is deeply anti-democratic. But it could turn good – in a way.
If Republicans see the GOP is losing, they may say, “let’s stay home, we have lost anyway”. On the other hand, the hesitant, the people who did not decided whether to vote or not, they may think “let’s get out and vote, because we are losing now, and we don’t want to lose, and we have to do something about it”. I could easily see myself in this later category.
So it can go both ways. A French proverb says: “Polls are like lampposts for a drunk. He doesn’t use it to see better but to lean on it”.
“It’s just, it’s got to be 50-50 guys” add O’Reilly… “you can’t do a 9 point Democrat [difference] in a poll. I mean of course, of course you’re going to have a 14 point lead. So, anyway I don’t believe the poll but I do believe that the Republican Party is in trouble right now.”
What do you think?
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