[ April 24, 2024 ]
A new poll by Quinnipiac University came out about the midterm election.
The result is bad for the Republicans. Democrats are 14 points ahead over Republicans on the “generic House ballot”.
“You look at this poll and you go ohhh, pretty bad for the Republican Party” said Bill O’Reilly in a video published on billoreilly.com,”
“But then you look at how the poll was done, continue O’Reilly whom I consider as one of the smartest political observer, 25 percent of respondents to the Quinnipiac poll are Republican, 34 percent Democrat. So the poll is garbage”.
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I have never been good at predicting election results, and I resist the natural temptation to make any. I am better at analyzing what is going on. But if my memory is of any help, wasn’t it that all the polls said Trump has no chance to win? (Beside the Los Angeles Times who uses a different method in that they keep polling the exact same people). Even the king of the polls, the gifted Nat Silver fell from his throne and had it all wrong and predicted Trump will lose.
Quinnipiac is one of the organizations who got it wrong in 2016, and are using the same wrong methods now. Why should we listen to them, and believe them now? We shouldn’t. “Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results” said Einstein. But whether we realize it or not, even if we don’t trust the poll, we cannot resist being influenced by them. It’s vicious. And they know it.
Anyway. It’s bad. Manipulating the polls is deeply anti-democratic. But it could turn good – in a way.
If Republicans see the GOP is losing, they may say, “let’s stay home, we have lost anyway”. On the other hand, the hesitant, the people who did not decided whether to vote or not, they may think “let’s get out and vote, because we are losing now, and we don’t want to lose, and we have to do something about it”. I could easily see myself in this later category.
So it can go both ways. A French proverb says: “Polls are like lampposts for a drunk. He doesn’t use it to see better but to lean on it”.
“It’s just, it’s got to be 50-50 guys” add O’Reilly… “you can’t do a 9 point Democrat [difference] in a poll. I mean of course, of course you’re going to have a 14 point lead. So, anyway I don’t believe the poll but I do believe that the Republican Party is in trouble right now.”
What do you think?
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29 Comments
5 years ago
When Trump caved on The Wall during the big Omnibus bill it was The End.
5 years ago
Reply to
pdxnag
No, he had to make a choice. Obama left us a real mess. He purposely ran out military into the ground.
You can not negotiate from a position of strength with these nutcase countries if you have a dilapidated military. So he rebuilt the military and gave them a raise among other things/ They hadn’t had a raise for the first time in TEN years and he did not “misspeak” on that. Most of them are on FOOD STAMPS and other social programs. Obama and the Bush’s totally neglected our military. Those are facts. Forget the fake news sites.
As defense expert Justin Johnson recently pointed out, “As a percent of the government spending or total economy, the U.S. has not spent so little on national defense since the end of World War II.”
These progressively smaller budgets have taken their toll. Our shrinking military is stretched thinner than it’s been in years. It’s had to forgo modernization efforts repeatedly. The four branches have been forced to make aging ships, planes and other vehicles last well beyond their intended life spans.
To call this foolhardy doesn’t begin to describe the situation. It’s not as if the world has suddenly become safer. Indeed, we’ve been asking our military to do more with less for years. You can’t fund an adequate defense on the cheap.
…
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/14/ed-feulner-obama-deep-cuts-to-defense-leaves-us-vu/
We will get the wall. Make no mistake about that. It has already started but more money is needed as well as more ICE people for deportations.
5 years ago
Reply to
felix1999
If the Democrats, G-d forbid, succeed in stealing the midterms, the last paragraph of yours will NEVER happen. Instead we will get more Third World and Muslim traitors and criminals.
5 years ago
Reply to
pdxnag
Still infinitely better than the option–unless you’re the ‘kill me quickly’ type.
5 years ago
Reply to
pdxnag
Yes, when DJT couldn’t get the “Mc’s” on his side for anything, was beginning of end.
5 years ago
Voter suppression again!
5 years ago
The Dems are clearly banking on voters to be easily distracted, highly susceptible to enemedia and Deep State disinformation, extremely fickle a la Olive Oyl, and of very short memories and short attention spans. Because make no mistake: Anybody who votes Democrat today is basically a Deep State useful idiot and enemy of America.
5 years ago
Reply to
Patriotic American
They use lies / Polls to make Republicans voters believe its not worth voting bcoz they already lost while Dem voters , dead, illegals will all be encouraged , bused and told to vote more than once where they can !
Left/Liberals Muslims are pathological liars. share this if anyone believes their Lies http://bit.ly/2rF8pfo
They protect illegals/ jihadis and criminals
5 years ago
Reply to
Suresh
I hope you don’t wear out your mattress from all that at home work you’re doing!
5 years ago
Reply to
Suresh
There’s another term for what you described viz rigged polls: Self-fulfilling prophecy.
5 years ago
Reply to
Patriotic American
No. self fulfilling prophecy pertains to individuals who believe in negative outcome and getting one.
what media is doing is mass scale lying to mislead public. Its time to ban such fake polls which are skewed by using more dems in the pol sample .
..or sue them for manipulating polls by skewing it
5 years ago
New poll results: 5 out of 6 non-citizen voters will be voting Dem0rat in the upcoming elections!
5 years ago
Not to worry, mokes. From an insanely small sample they claim an accuracy of ‘plus or minus 5%, 19 times out of 20’. If you parse the ‘plus or minus 5%’ logically you’ll find that leaves a lot of wiggle space. And, they don’t tell you this but on that unaccounted for 1 time out of 20 occasion they can be more than 100% wrong. Average it out and you get plus or minus zero.
5 years ago
Polls can often be misleading and biased.
5 years ago
We are all equal but some are more equal than others.
Horseface’s socialist fashion accessories!
5 years ago
Reply to
jkarna
Yeah, she has the best of fashion but she hasn’t a clitoris, so what would she rather have?
5 years ago
Of course there is the “take a solemn personal oath to the creator that I shall never give a pollster an honest answer” ploy. Pollsters call. If I am busy I shut them down rather curtly. If I feel I have time for fun ….
{^_^}
5 years ago
We totally screwed if the Communists get back in
5 years ago
It will be a repeat of 2016 and you will see the rending and tearing of clothing in the Fake media and Brian Stelter will fall off his perch and break into a 1000 pieces and all Obozo’s men will not be able to put him back together again.
5 years ago
That is their wet dream.
5 years ago
Let the polls keep predicting a dem win. More incentive for those who would stay home thinking they lost to get out and vote to stop them.
5 years ago
Anyone who believes any poll – especially the ones controlled by the Left is a gullible fool.
The only poll during the last election that proved to be 100% accurate was that of Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in NY…..if you don’t know who he is….look him up….he is an amazing man with an amazing algorithm that accurately predicts elections…..
Phony polls are designed to dispirit people and make them less likely to get out and exercise their American rights to vote.
MIDTERMS ARE CRITICAL THIS TIME….DO NOT FAIL TO GET OUT AND VOTE…..President Trump has and continues to do amazing things for America….but he can’t do it alone….send him HELP by voting in those that will work for his agenda for America.
5 years ago
“I’ve always been fond of dogs, and they are the one animal that knows
the proper treatment to give to poles.’” Diefenbaker replied, using a
little word play to dismiss the validity of polls.
This is a quote by former Canadian PM John Diefenbaker when several polls indicated he would be soundly defeated in an upcoming election. “Dief” and his conservative party went on to win in a landslide.
5 years ago
Vote early and often……..Get those you know to the polls so they vote!
5 years ago
There’s a power greater than the Quinnipiac poll, AND MUCH GREATER than the left of center ‘dem/libs’. That’s the ultimate ‘kingmaker’ who has said in His WORD that He it is WHO designates and deposes leaders and rulers of the people. That ‘ultimate kingmaker’ is going to have the last WORD!
5 years ago
What these dumb asses refuse to comprehend is any poll that falsely shows the GOP in trouble will turn out even more voters for the GOP, both Republicans, Independents and Democrats turned Republican since the last election.
Keep it up braniacs, you are about to turn a red tide into a Tsunami!
5 years ago
LMAO! Bend over democrats. Same idiot people doing polls in 2016. It did not work out well did it democrats! Trump supporters are coming and will bring independants and smart democrats with them. Only stupid mooching democrats would want to give back the tax cuts and give our money to illegals. We don.t care where Donald put his dick. We care that he is running the best jobs and economy in decades. Best jobs for blacks, hispanics, and unlike the democrats, he remembered the white also.Do what the stupid democrat professor did, end your pain.
5 years ago
Every poll got it wrong, on purpose. They are trying too persuade Republican voters to stay home on voting day because they say it is a lost cause. I was so thrilled when Shrillary was defeated. None of what we are learning about this huge conspiracy would have been discovered had their plan worked. The people who poo-poo conspiracy theorists always say that a conspiracy is not possible because of all the people involved. Well, look at all the people involved in this fiasco!. One name keeps getting left out….John McLame. It was one of his staff that received the fake dossier to give it legitimacy.. His staff member then passed it on to the authorities putting the whole plan in motion.
