Final update at 2:50pm: Francois Fillon concede victory to Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, and ask his supporters to vote for Macron in the second round.
New update at 1:20pm (19h20 in Paris): according to our preliminary opinion, Emmanuel Macron will be France’s new President: in any duel against Le Pen or Fillon, he beats them.
Update: we just received the French Ministry of Interior’s first estimate according to their “test polling stations”:
At 5pm local time, turnout in the first round of France’s presidential elections is 69,42%, down from 70,59% in 2012.
Market research leader Ipsos anticipates that the turnout will reach 81%. Harris Interactive believes it will not exceed 78.5%.
According to our information, the last exit poll suggest that socialist Emmanuel Macron is leading with 23.5%, followed by [part far right/ part far left] Marine le Pen (22.5%), then center right François Fillon with 21% of the vote, and Communist Melenchon at 18%.
As this is a non official estimate, the margin of error is not really relevant.
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