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Obama and The Muslim Brotherhood vs. The “Axis of Reason”

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It mirrors the geopolitical landscape during World War II, only this time the US is siding with the Nazis.

Saudi Foreign Minister Sau'd Al-Faisal: The West Is Covering Up And Even Encouraging The Crimes Of The Muslim Brotherhood In Egypt (MEMRI)

Screen Shot 2013-08-20 at 6.29.10 PM
The UAE Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan, has called for Gulf countries to unite against the Muslim Brotherhood because it “does not believe in the nation state. It does not believe in the sovereignty of the state.”

Allies vs. America in Egypt. Israel, Saudis and U.A.E. Support Military Moves (Wall Street Journal)

Israel warns US: Alienating Egyptian army could risk peace talks Jerusalem Post, August 20, 2013

Daily Beast quotes US senator as saying Obama administration has decided to temporarily suspend military aid to Egypt.

Israel has urged the US to back the Egyptian military, saying losing
Egypt to Islamists could pose a risk the Israeli-Palestinian peace
talks, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

According
to an Israeli official quoted by the paper, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have
traditionally played an important role in providing the Palestinians
the support to stay in the negotiations and to make concessions, and
without them there is a chance the talks will fail.

According to the report, Israel and the US’s Gulf allies
are urging the Obama administration to encourage the Egyptian military
to confront rather than reconcile with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Israel
is interested in an Egyptian government that will aggressively fight
the Islamists in the Sinai Peninsula and protect the border, the report
said.

The paper quotes an Israeli official as calling anti-Muslim Brotherhood nations “the axis of reason.”

The
head of the Israeli-Palestinian Center for Research and Information,
Gershon Baskin, is quoted by the paper as saying Israel’s leaders view
Islamist president Mohamed Morsi’s overthrow as “an opportune time to
give a real blow to political Islam throughout the region and get the
more sensible people back in power.”

Allies vs. America in Egypt.  Israel, Saudis and U.A.E. Support Military Moves (Wall Street Journal)

The U.S.'s closest Middle East allies are undercutting American
policy in Egypt, encouraging the military to confront the Muslim
Brotherhood rather than reconcile, U.S. and Arab officials said.

Egyptian security forces detained backers of ousted President Mohammed Morsi last week in Cairo.

The parallel efforts by Israel, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have blunted U.S. influence with
Egypt's military leadership and underscored how the chaos there has
pulled Israel into ever-closer alignment with those Gulf states,
officials said.

A senior Israeli official called the anti-Muslim Brotherhood nations "the axis of reason."

The Obama
administration first had sought to persuade Egyptian military leader
Gen. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi not to overthrow the elected government of
President Mohammed Morsi and then to reconcile with his Muslim
Brotherhood base.

Gen. Sisi has done the opposite—orchestrating the president's
overthrow and a crackdown in which over 900 people have been killed
since Wednesday—reflecting his apparent confidence in the Egyptian
government's ability to weather an American backlash, U.S. and Arab
officials said.

Early Tuesday, state television reported the arrest of Mohammed
Badie, the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, after security
forces detained him in an apartment in the Nasr City district of Cairo.

American officials have voiced frustration with the stance of their
regional allies but also played down the broader impact on relations
with them. The U.S. relies heavily on Israel and the Gulf states in
other critical areas including countering Iran and al Qaeda, containing
the civil war in Syria and backing Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

"Our ability to influence the outcome in Egypt is limited," said
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, the U.S.'s main interlocutor with Gen.
Sisi.

U.S. sway in Egypt has long been underpinned by military aid, some of
which has been dialed back since Mr. Morsi's ouster and the violence.
The U.S. froze the transfer of F-16 fighters and canceled a military
exercise.

The White House on Monday gave no official
reaction to the imminent release of former Egyptian President Mubarak.
At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the U.S. is working
with Egypt to ensure Americans there are safe. (Photo/Video: AP)

But U.S. aid amounts, even before these moves, have been dwarfed by new pledges from Arab powers.

Mr. Hagel sought to play down the influence of others. "All nations
are limited in their influence in another nation's internal issues," he
said.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.A.E. recognize Israel or have formal
diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. What unites the three
countries is a series of common interests, in particular countering
Iran, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Diplomats say the Saudis and the U.A.E. want to deal a blow to the
Muslim Brotherhood and undercut the influence of the regional rivals
that back them: Turkey and Qatar.

Israel wants an Egyptian government that will
aggressively fight Islamists and protect the border. Its leaders see Mr.
Morsi's ouster as "an opportune time to give a real blow to political
Islam throughout the region and get the more sensible people back in
power," said Gershon Baskin, head of the Israel Palestine Center for
Research and Information, a Jerusalem based think tank that advocates
for a two-state solution.

Israel isn't coordinating directly with the Gulf states, whereas
Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. are coordinating closely, Middle Eastern
officials said.

U.S. officials said they underestimated the extent to which the
Saudis and the Emirates would double-down in support of the Egyptian
military.

Before the military intervened on July 3, Mr. Hagel and other
officials tried to persuade Gen. Sisi to give Mr. Morsi more time to
engage his opponents. U.S. officials said that message was undermined by
Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., which encouraged the generals not to back
down.

Secretary of State John Kerry
tried to put the Saudis and Emirates "on the same page" as the U.S.
both before and after Mr. Morsi's ouster, a senior administration
official said. "But clearly they have their own decisions to make about
their own policies," the official said.

The message from the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia to the Egyptian generals
was, " 'Go get 'em,' and they backed it up with billions of dollars,"
another senior administration official said.

U.S. officials say the Israeli position isn't as firm, reflecting
fears the Egyptian military crackdown could spark an Islamist insurgency
that could erode Israeli security. Nonetheless, Israel is pushing
Washington not to cut off military support to Egypt, arguing that would
jeopardize counterterrorism cooperation and the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian
peace accords.

"Only after stability is restored, only after law and order is
enforced, only then can you start to talk about launching a process that
leads to more democratic processes," said the senior Israeli official.

When the Egyptian army overthrew Mr. Morsi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and
the U.A.E. put together what Gulf analysts called a $12 billion
"Marshall Program" aid package. The Saudis transferred the first $2
billion of their $5 billion pledge to Egypt's central bank within days.

That eclipsed the U.S.'s $1.5 billion a year in aid, which comes with
strings attached. In light of the overthrow and the subsequent
violence, the White House has suspended a shipment of F-16 fighter
planes and a military exercise with Egypt.

A decision is expected to freeze a shipment of Apache helicopters to
Egypt as soon as this week, according to U.S. officials. Other war
materiel, most importantly spare parts, continues to flow from the U.S.
to the Egyptian military.

A senior Egyptian official said U.S. economic assistance to Cairo,
around $400 million in 2013, looks paltry in comparison with the Arab
states' largess, though he recognized the importance of the larger
military aid. The official cited "the frustration we've had with aid
being used by the U.S. and others as a means to put pressure on Egypt."

Saudi King Abdullah has stepped up the Kingdom's support for what he
called Egypt's fight against "terrorism and extremism." President Barack
Obama has criticized the crackdown, a message repeated by Mr. Hagel on
Monday.

The Obama administration believes the Brotherhood can't be eliminated
by force and has warned Gen. Sisi that the crackdown would drive
hard-line Islamists underground and possibly ignite a civil war.

Senior Arab officials said Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states haven't
been subtle in raising their concerns to the U.S. about what they see
as the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood. For much the same
reasons, these Mideast powers also opposed Mr. Obama's decision in
February 2011 to back the ouster of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak.

This year, a string of Arab leaders, including King Abdullah II of
Jordan, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and the U.A.E's crown
prince met with Mr. Obama to press the U.S. to be more wary of the
Brotherhood's activities, according to U.S. and Arab officials briefed
on the meetings. Arab officials said they told the White House that they
were worried that the U.S. is pulling back from their region, and that
they can't wait for Washington to be more aggressive in trying to
dictate events.

"I don't think that Washington is really in the conversation" on
Egypt in a significant way, said a senior Arab official. "We're not
going to wait for the U.S. and the Europeans to decide to get more
involved."

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