Iran: Historic Opportunity Squandered Under Weak US President

This, dear readers, is a turning point in history. There are many moments historians can point to as defining moments in history, i.e., the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, which set the world on fire with war in 1914; the democracies' failure to stop Hitler at Czechoslovakia ………..I am sure Atlas readers can list them.

This is such a moment. The murdering mullahs are empowered. Nothing and no one will stop them. We are careening down a collision course towards untold horror. Pray. Hard.

Going Out With A Bang, Or A Whimper? Strategy Page

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July 6, 2009: The government has systematically hunted down demonstration
leaders, and those who were using blogs, Twitter and social networking sites to
get news out of the country. This has put a halt to large demonstrations in the
capital. At least twenty people were killed during the crackdown, several
hundred injured and over a thousand arrested. Foreigners, or Iranians working
for embassies or foreign news organizations, are being released, as well as the
few foreign journalists who were picked up. The government is planning to
prosecute many of those arrested, especially those responsible for getting
embarrassing (to the government) news out of the country.

The government has, for two decades, been studying the mass revolutions of
1989, and the 1990s, that brought down all those communist dictatorships, and
believe they have developed methods of preventing a similar fate for themselves.
Unlike the former communist states, the Iranian dictatorship has the loyalty of
20-30 percent of the population. This is where the Revolutionary Guard and Basij
come from, and a lot of these guys are willing to die to maintain the clerical
dictatorship in Iran. The communists of 1989 had lost most of their true
believers, so a mass revolution in Iran will have to be a bloodier affair, and
also be a battle between Islamic radicals and moderates (including non-Moslems).
The senior clerics appear willing to fight to the death, and their opponents
are, more and more, willing to deal with that head on. Meanwhile, no matter how
successful the government was in suppressing the demonstrations in the capital,
it was a defeat for the government. More people were radicalized, and dissention
in the clergy became visible. The Iranian Islamic radicals are losing. Long
term, they are lost. But like any tyranny in decline, there's the danger that
the clerical dictatorship will go out with a bang, not, as the Soviet Union did,
with a whimper. And if it is with a bang, it could be a very loud and
destructive bang if the clerics have  nuclear weapons.

Iraq and Afghanistan are officially quiet about the turmoil in Iran, but
unofficially both countries would like to see the Iranian Islamic radicals out
of power. The current Iranian government lets its radicals interfere with the
neighbors, supporting terrorism in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But the neighbors
know that any kind of Iranian government would be overbearing and prone to throw
its weight around. Iran has been the neighborhood bully for thousands of years,
and no one expects that to change, no matter how many times Iran changes
governments.

July 5, 2009: The Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom (ARTQ),
which speaks for the majority of senior clerics and religious faculty, issued a
statement calling for a new election and denouncing the recent vote, and the
violence against protestors. The ARTQ represents rank and file clerics, who have
not yet been appointed to the several dozen senior clerical positions that, in
effect, control the government. The ARTQ did not represent the views of all
these lower ranking clergy, but obviously spoke for a majority.

All Iranian revolution liveblogging archives here.

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